Opinion Poll by Kantar, 21–28 June 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
25.0% |
23.6–26.6% |
23.2–27.0% |
22.8–27.4% |
22.2–28.1% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
20.4% |
19.0–21.8% |
18.7–22.2% |
18.3–22.5% |
17.7–23.2% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.7–21.4% |
18.3–21.8% |
18.0–22.2% |
17.4–22.9% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
10.0% |
9.0–11.1% |
8.8–11.4% |
8.5–11.7% |
8.1–12.2% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
7.1–9.0% |
6.9–9.3% |
6.7–9.6% |
6.3–10.1% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.7% |
5.0–6.6% |
4.8–6.8% |
4.6–7.0% |
4.3–7.5% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.8–5.5% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.8–2.0% |
0.7–2.3% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–2.1% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.4% |
0.4–1.6% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.3% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
98.7% |
|
23 |
35% |
98% |
|
24 |
54% |
63% |
Median |
25 |
6% |
9% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
18 |
10% |
99.1% |
|
19 |
62% |
90% |
Median |
20 |
26% |
28% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
3% |
100% |
|
18 |
77% |
97% |
Median |
19 |
9% |
21% |
|
20 |
11% |
12% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
12% |
98.8% |
|
10 |
78% |
87% |
Median |
11 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
12 |
9% |
9% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
7 |
33% |
99.5% |
|
8 |
64% |
67% |
Median |
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
85% |
99.7% |
Median |
6 |
9% |
15% |
|
7 |
6% |
6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
3 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
88% |
92% |
Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
31% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
69% |
69% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
26% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
74% |
74% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.8% |
98.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
12% |
100% |
|
1 |
88% |
88% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
17% |
17% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
65% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
35% |
35% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
24 |
0% |
24–25 |
24–26 |
23–26 |
22–27 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
18 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–20 |
17–20 |
17–22 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
10 |
0% |
9–10 |
9–12 |
9–12 |
8–12 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
10 |
0% |
8–10 |
8–10 |
8–10 |
8–11 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
24 |
60% |
96% |
Median |
25 |
29% |
36% |
|
26 |
6% |
7% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
3% |
100% |
|
18 |
77% |
97% |
Median |
19 |
9% |
21% |
|
20 |
11% |
12% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
12% |
98.8% |
|
10 |
78% |
87% |
Median |
11 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
12 |
9% |
9% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
8 |
11% |
99.6% |
|
9 |
36% |
88% |
|
10 |
51% |
53% |
Median |
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 21–28 June 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1410
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.47%