Opinion Poll by Forsa, 5–11 July 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
24.0% |
22.8–25.3% |
22.4–25.6% |
22.1–25.9% |
21.6–26.6% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
20.3% |
19.2–21.6% |
18.9–21.9% |
18.6–22.2% |
18.1–22.8% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
19.0% |
17.9–20.2% |
17.6–20.5% |
17.3–20.8% |
16.8–21.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
8.2–9.9% |
8.0–10.2% |
7.8–10.4% |
7.5–10.8% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.3–7.8% |
6.1–8.0% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.6–8.6% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.7% |
5.1–6.4% |
4.9–6.6% |
4.7–6.8% |
4.5–7.2% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.5–2.3% |
1.4–2.4% |
1.3–2.5% |
1.2–2.8% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.4–2.1% |
1.3–2.3% |
1.2–2.4% |
1.1–2.6% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.9–1.5% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.6–1.9% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
4% |
98% |
|
23 |
75% |
94% |
Median |
24 |
2% |
19% |
|
25 |
17% |
17% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
23% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
3% |
77% |
|
20 |
53% |
74% |
Median |
21 |
19% |
21% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
6% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
94% |
|
18 |
71% |
92% |
Median |
19 |
19% |
21% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
44% |
100% |
|
8 |
14% |
56% |
Median |
9 |
41% |
42% |
|
10 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
34% |
98% |
|
7 |
62% |
64% |
Median |
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
23% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
77% |
77% |
Median |
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
6 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
23% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
77% |
77% |
Median |
3 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
6% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
94% |
94% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
93% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
7% |
7% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
40% |
100% |
|
1 |
59% |
60% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
72% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
28% |
28% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
60% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
40% |
40% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
36% |
100% |
|
1 |
64% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
26 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
18 |
0% |
18–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–20 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
8 |
0% |
7–9 |
7–9 |
7–9 |
7–10 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
8–9 |
8–9 |
7–9 |
7–10 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
17% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
7% |
83% |
|
25 |
6% |
76% |
|
26 |
50% |
70% |
Median |
27 |
18% |
20% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
6% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
94% |
|
18 |
71% |
92% |
Median |
19 |
19% |
21% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
44% |
100% |
|
8 |
14% |
56% |
Median |
9 |
41% |
42% |
|
10 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
4% |
100% |
|
8 |
35% |
96% |
|
9 |
60% |
61% |
Median |
10 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–11 July 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1952
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.47%