Opinion Poll by Forsa, 19–25 July 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
24.0% |
22.8–25.3% |
22.5–25.6% |
22.2–26.0% |
21.6–26.6% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
20.3% |
19.2–21.5% |
18.9–21.9% |
18.6–22.2% |
18.1–22.8% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
19.0% |
17.9–20.2% |
17.6–20.5% |
17.3–20.8% |
16.8–21.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
10.0% |
9.2–10.9% |
8.9–11.2% |
8.7–11.4% |
8.4–11.9% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.3–6.7% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.1% |
4.7–7.5% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.7% |
5.0–6.4% |
4.9–6.6% |
4.7–6.8% |
4.4–7.2% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.9% |
1.5–2.3% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.4–2.6% |
1.2–2.8% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.4–2.1% |
1.3–2.3% |
1.2–2.4% |
1.1–2.6% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.9–1.5% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.6–1.9% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
11% |
98% |
|
22 |
10% |
87% |
|
23 |
27% |
77% |
Median |
24 |
9% |
50% |
|
25 |
40% |
41% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
5% |
100% |
|
18 |
7% |
95% |
|
19 |
11% |
88% |
|
20 |
43% |
78% |
Median |
21 |
26% |
35% |
|
22 |
8% |
8% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
17 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
18 |
63% |
94% |
Median |
19 |
30% |
31% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
100% |
|
9 |
56% |
97% |
Median |
10 |
38% |
41% |
|
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
35% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
64% |
65% |
Median |
7 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
86% |
99.8% |
Median |
6 |
14% |
14% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
32% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
67% |
68% |
Median |
6 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.4% |
99.7% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
74% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
26% |
26% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
70% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
30% |
30% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.1% |
99.2% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
29% |
100% |
|
1 |
71% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
82% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
18% |
18% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
82% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
18% |
18% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
18 |
0% |
18–19 |
17–19 |
17–19 |
17–20 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
9 |
0% |
9–10 |
9–10 |
8–11 |
8–11 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
6–8 |
6–8 |
6–8 |
6–8 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
100% |
|
23 |
8% |
97% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
25 |
52% |
88% |
Median |
26 |
27% |
36% |
|
27 |
9% |
9% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
17 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
18 |
63% |
94% |
Median |
19 |
30% |
31% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
100% |
|
9 |
56% |
97% |
Median |
10 |
38% |
41% |
|
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
25% |
100% |
|
7 |
57% |
75% |
Median |
8 |
17% |
18% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–25 July 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1958
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 4.74%