Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 9–11 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
26.0% |
24.3–27.8% |
23.8–28.3% |
23.4–28.8% |
22.6–29.6% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
20.3% |
18.8–22.0% |
18.4–22.5% |
18.0–22.9% |
17.3–23.7% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
19.0% |
17.5–20.6% |
17.1–21.1% |
16.7–21.5% |
16.0–22.3% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
12.0% |
10.8–13.4% |
10.4–13.8% |
10.2–14.1% |
9.6–14.8% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.1% |
5.8–8.4% |
5.6–8.7% |
5.2–9.3% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.7% |
4.8–6.7% |
4.6–7.0% |
4.4–7.2% |
4.0–7.8% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.2–5.2% |
3.0–5.4% |
2.7–5.9% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.9% |
0.7–2.0% |
0.5–2.3% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.4% |
0.2–1.6% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.1–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
19% |
98% |
|
24 |
46% |
79% |
Median |
25 |
7% |
33% |
|
26 |
5% |
27% |
|
27 |
22% |
22% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
3% |
98% |
|
19 |
38% |
95% |
|
20 |
50% |
57% |
Median |
21 |
3% |
7% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
17 |
11% |
94% |
|
18 |
44% |
83% |
Median |
19 |
36% |
38% |
|
20 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
3% |
100% |
|
10 |
7% |
97% |
|
11 |
28% |
90% |
|
12 |
23% |
62% |
Median |
13 |
37% |
39% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
58% |
94% |
Median |
7 |
28% |
36% |
|
8 |
7% |
8% |
|
9 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
21% |
100% |
|
5 |
27% |
79% |
|
6 |
50% |
51% |
Median |
7 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
4% |
100% |
|
3 |
12% |
96% |
|
4 |
63% |
84% |
Median |
5 |
18% |
21% |
|
6 |
3% |
3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
1 |
69% |
99.2% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
30% |
30% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
92% |
99.7% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
8% |
8% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
41% |
100% |
|
1 |
59% |
59% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
45% |
100% |
|
1 |
55% |
55% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
76% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
24% |
24% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
39% |
100% |
|
1 |
61% |
61% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
26 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
23–29 |
22–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–21 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
12 |
0% |
10–13 |
10–13 |
9–13 |
9–14 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–8 |
6–10 |
6–10 |
6–10 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
22% |
98.8% |
|
24 |
19% |
77% |
|
25 |
8% |
58% |
|
26 |
44% |
50% |
Median |
27 |
3% |
6% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
17 |
11% |
94% |
|
18 |
44% |
83% |
Median |
19 |
36% |
38% |
|
20 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
3% |
100% |
|
10 |
7% |
97% |
|
11 |
28% |
90% |
|
12 |
23% |
62% |
Median |
13 |
37% |
39% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
56% |
94% |
Median |
8 |
30% |
38% |
|
9 |
3% |
8% |
|
10 |
5% |
5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–11 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1042
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.94%