Opinion Poll by Forsa, 9–15 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
25.0% |
23.7–26.4% |
23.4–26.7% |
23.0–27.1% |
22.5–27.7% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
20.3% |
19.1–21.6% |
18.8–21.9% |
18.5–22.3% |
18.0–22.9% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.9–19.2% |
16.6–19.6% |
16.3–19.8% |
15.8–20.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
11.0% |
10.1–12.0% |
9.8–12.3% |
9.6–12.5% |
9.2–13.0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.3–6.8% |
5.2–7.0% |
5.0–7.2% |
4.7–7.6% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.7% |
5.0–6.4% |
4.8–6.6% |
4.7–6.8% |
4.4–7.2% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.7% |
3.3–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
2.9–5.3% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.9% |
1.5–2.4% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.4–2.6% |
1.2–2.9% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.1% |
1.2–2.3% |
1.2–2.4% |
1.0–2.6% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.9–1.5% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.6–1.9% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.5% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
22 |
8% |
98.6% |
|
23 |
50% |
91% |
Median |
24 |
29% |
40% |
|
25 |
8% |
11% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.2% |
99.5% |
|
18 |
5% |
98% |
|
19 |
21% |
93% |
|
20 |
65% |
72% |
Median |
21 |
4% |
7% |
|
22 |
2% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
32% |
98.7% |
|
17 |
45% |
67% |
Median |
18 |
18% |
22% |
|
19 |
3% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
9 |
15% |
99.8% |
|
10 |
48% |
85% |
Median |
11 |
33% |
37% |
|
12 |
4% |
4% |
|
13 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
19% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
78% |
80% |
Median |
7 |
3% |
3% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
74% |
98.6% |
Median |
6 |
24% |
25% |
|
7 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
16% |
100% |
|
4 |
82% |
84% |
Median |
5 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
9% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
89% |
91% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
55% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
45% |
45% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
91% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
8% |
8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
10% |
100% |
|
1 |
90% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
35% |
100% |
|
1 |
65% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
18% |
100% |
|
1 |
82% |
82% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–19 |
15–19 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
10 |
0% |
9–11 |
9–11 |
9–12 |
9–12 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–8 |
6–8 |
6–8 |
6–9 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
24 |
23% |
97% |
|
25 |
50% |
74% |
Median |
26 |
20% |
24% |
|
27 |
5% |
5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
32% |
98.7% |
|
17 |
45% |
67% |
Median |
18 |
18% |
22% |
|
19 |
3% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
9 |
15% |
99.8% |
|
10 |
48% |
85% |
Median |
11 |
33% |
37% |
|
12 |
4% |
4% |
|
13 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-15-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
62% |
94% |
Median |
8 |
31% |
32% |
|
9 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–15 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.15%