Opinion Poll by Kantar, 24–30 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.6–23.4% |
20.2–23.9% |
19.9–24.2% |
19.2–24.9% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
21.0% |
19.6–22.4% |
19.3–22.8% |
18.9–23.2% |
18.3–23.9% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
18.8% |
17.5–20.2% |
17.1–20.6% |
16.8–20.9% |
16.2–21.6% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
12.0% |
10.9–13.2% |
10.6–13.5% |
10.4–13.8% |
9.9–14.4% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
7.1–9.0% |
6.9–9.3% |
6.7–9.6% |
6.3–10.0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.2% |
4.6–6.1% |
4.4–6.3% |
4.2–6.5% |
3.9–7.0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.9% |
4.2–6.1% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.7–6.7% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.0% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.8–2.5% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.9–2.1% |
0.7–2.4% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.3% |
0.6–1.5% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.4–1.8% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.4% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
100% |
|
19 |
21% |
96% |
|
20 |
8% |
75% |
|
21 |
60% |
68% |
Median |
22 |
6% |
8% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
17% |
95% |
|
20 |
12% |
78% |
|
21 |
33% |
66% |
Median |
22 |
33% |
33% |
|
23 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
10% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
67% |
90% |
Median |
18 |
16% |
23% |
|
19 |
2% |
7% |
|
20 |
5% |
5% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
17% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
13% |
83% |
|
12 |
44% |
70% |
Median |
13 |
6% |
26% |
|
14 |
20% |
20% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
7 |
51% |
99.4% |
Median |
8 |
43% |
48% |
|
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
12% |
100% |
|
4 |
11% |
88% |
|
5 |
58% |
77% |
Median |
6 |
18% |
19% |
|
7 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
22% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
74% |
78% |
Median |
6 |
4% |
4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
72% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
28% |
28% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
59% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
41% |
41% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.3% |
99.7% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
42% |
100% |
|
1 |
58% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
38% |
38% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
46% |
100% |
|
1 |
54% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
12 |
0% |
10–14 |
10–14 |
10–14 |
10–14 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
8–10 |
8–10 |
8–10 |
8–11 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
12% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
19% |
87% |
|
22 |
43% |
68% |
Median |
23 |
4% |
25% |
|
24 |
15% |
21% |
|
25 |
5% |
6% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
17% |
95% |
|
20 |
12% |
78% |
|
21 |
33% |
66% |
Median |
22 |
33% |
33% |
|
23 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
17% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
13% |
83% |
|
12 |
44% |
70% |
Median |
13 |
6% |
26% |
|
14 |
20% |
20% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-08-30-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
8 |
37% |
99.6% |
Median |
9 |
32% |
63% |
|
10 |
30% |
31% |
|
11 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–30 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1411
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.06%