Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 2–4 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
21.0% |
19.4–22.7% |
19.0–23.2% |
18.6–23.6% |
17.8–24.5% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
20.3% |
18.7–22.0% |
18.3–22.5% |
17.9–22.9% |
17.2–23.7% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
19.0% |
17.5–20.7% |
17.1–21.1% |
16.7–21.6% |
16.0–22.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
12.0% |
10.8–13.4% |
10.4–13.8% |
10.1–14.2% |
9.6–14.9% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
7.0–9.2% |
6.7–9.6% |
6.5–9.9% |
6.0–10.5% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.3–8.2% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.7% |
4.9–6.8% |
4.6–7.1% |
4.4–7.3% |
4.1–7.9% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
0.7–2.8% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.8–2.1% |
0.8–2.2% |
0.6–2.5% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.5–1.7% |
0.4–2.0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.3% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
4% |
98% |
|
19 |
6% |
94% |
|
20 |
41% |
88% |
Median |
21 |
45% |
47% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
17 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
18 |
5% |
97% |
|
19 |
77% |
92% |
Median |
20 |
9% |
15% |
|
21 |
2% |
6% |
|
22 |
4% |
5% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
38% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
6% |
61% |
|
18 |
13% |
55% |
Median |
19 |
39% |
42% |
|
20 |
2% |
3% |
|
21 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
43% |
99.6% |
|
11 |
49% |
57% |
Median |
12 |
6% |
8% |
|
13 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
14% |
98% |
|
8 |
81% |
84% |
Median |
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
5 |
40% |
99.4% |
|
6 |
51% |
60% |
Median |
7 |
7% |
9% |
|
8 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
43% |
100% |
|
5 |
47% |
57% |
Median |
6 |
6% |
10% |
|
7 |
2% |
4% |
|
8 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
52% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
47% |
48% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
1 |
50% |
99.5% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
49% |
50% |
|
3 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
95% |
98.7% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
4% |
4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
96% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
|
1 |
89% |
89% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
50% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
50% |
50% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
14% |
100% |
|
1 |
86% |
86% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
21–27 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
11 |
0% |
10–11 |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–13 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
9–10 |
8–10 |
8–10 |
7–11 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
23 |
39% |
98% |
|
24 |
45% |
59% |
Median |
25 |
5% |
13% |
|
26 |
3% |
9% |
|
27 |
6% |
6% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
38% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
6% |
61% |
|
18 |
13% |
55% |
Median |
19 |
39% |
42% |
|
20 |
2% |
3% |
|
21 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
43% |
99.6% |
|
11 |
49% |
57% |
Median |
12 |
6% |
8% |
|
13 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-09-04-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
4% |
98% |
|
9 |
53% |
94% |
Median |
10 |
39% |
41% |
|
11 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–4 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.85%