Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 6–8 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
23.0% |
21.3–24.8% |
20.9–25.3% |
20.5–25.8% |
19.7–26.6% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.9% |
20.2–23.6% |
19.8–24.1% |
19.4–24.6% |
18.6–25.5% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
19.0% |
17.5–20.7% |
17.0–21.2% |
16.6–21.6% |
15.9–22.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
13.0% |
11.7–14.5% |
11.4–14.9% |
11.1–15.3% |
10.5–16.0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.2% |
5.3–7.3% |
5.0–7.6% |
4.8–7.9% |
4.4–8.4% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.0% |
4.8–7.4% |
4.6–7.6% |
4.2–8.2% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.1% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.6% |
3.5–7.1% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.9% |
0.6–2.0% |
0.5–2.3% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.6–1.9% |
0.4–2.2% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.4% |
0.4–1.5% |
0.3–1.8% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.1–1.3% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
9% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
78% |
91% |
Median |
22 |
6% |
13% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
24 |
6% |
6% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
20 |
52% |
91% |
Median |
21 |
10% |
39% |
|
22 |
28% |
29% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
17 |
55% |
98% |
Median |
18 |
28% |
43% |
|
19 |
9% |
16% |
|
20 |
6% |
6% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
11 |
26% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
11% |
74% |
|
13 |
7% |
63% |
|
14 |
6% |
56% |
Median |
15 |
0.3% |
50% |
|
16 |
50% |
50% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
12% |
98% |
|
6 |
83% |
86% |
Median |
7 |
3% |
3% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
6 |
77% |
91% |
Median |
7 |
13% |
14% |
|
8 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
4% |
100% |
|
4 |
84% |
96% |
Median |
5 |
9% |
12% |
|
6 |
3% |
4% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
98% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
1 |
86% |
99.1% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
13% |
13% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
7% |
100% |
|
1 |
91% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
63% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
37% |
37% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
68% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
32% |
32% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
69% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
31% |
31% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
32% |
100% |
|
1 |
68% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
24–30 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
17 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–20 |
17–20 |
15–20 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
14 |
0% |
11–16 |
11–16 |
11–16 |
11–16 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–8 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
5–9 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
3% |
93% |
|
26 |
59% |
90% |
Median |
27 |
5% |
31% |
|
28 |
23% |
26% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
17 |
55% |
98% |
Median |
18 |
28% |
43% |
|
19 |
9% |
16% |
|
20 |
6% |
6% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
11 |
26% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
11% |
74% |
|
13 |
7% |
63% |
|
14 |
6% |
56% |
Median |
15 |
0.3% |
50% |
|
16 |
50% |
50% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
5% |
99.1% |
|
7 |
78% |
94% |
Median |
8 |
11% |
17% |
|
9 |
6% |
6% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–8 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 974
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.32%