Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 7–9 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.1% |
19.5–22.8% |
19.1–23.3% |
18.7–23.7% |
17.9–24.6% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
21.0% |
19.4–22.7% |
19.0–23.2% |
18.6–23.6% |
17.8–24.5% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.5–19.6% |
16.1–20.1% |
15.7–20.5% |
15.0–21.3% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
13.0% |
11.7–14.5% |
11.4–14.9% |
11.1–15.2% |
10.5–16.0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.2% |
5.8–8.5% |
5.6–8.8% |
5.2–9.3% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.3–8.2% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.5% |
4.2–8.1% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
0.7–2.8% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.8–2.1% |
0.8–2.2% |
0.6–2.5% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.5–1.7% |
0.4–2.0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.3% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
2% |
97% |
|
19 |
25% |
95% |
|
20 |
36% |
71% |
Median |
21 |
9% |
34% |
|
22 |
25% |
26% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
18 |
8% |
97% |
|
19 |
63% |
88% |
Median |
20 |
2% |
25% |
|
21 |
19% |
23% |
|
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
8% |
96% |
|
17 |
56% |
88% |
Median |
18 |
28% |
32% |
|
19 |
3% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
37% |
99.0% |
|
12 |
36% |
62% |
Median |
13 |
21% |
26% |
|
14 |
2% |
4% |
|
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
33% |
96% |
|
7 |
30% |
63% |
Median |
8 |
33% |
34% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
46% |
99.3% |
|
6 |
49% |
53% |
Median |
7 |
3% |
4% |
|
8 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
53% |
98% |
Median |
6 |
35% |
46% |
|
7 |
9% |
11% |
|
8 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
85% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
15% |
15% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
48% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
52% |
52% |
Median |
3 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
94% |
98.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
7% |
100% |
|
1 |
93% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
50% |
100% |
|
1 |
50% |
50% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
38% |
100% |
|
1 |
62% |
62% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
21% |
100% |
|
1 |
79% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
25 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
11–13 |
11–14 |
10–15 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
8 |
0% |
7–10 |
7–10 |
7–10 |
7–10 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
17% |
98% |
|
25 |
41% |
82% |
Median |
26 |
11% |
41% |
|
27 |
2% |
30% |
|
28 |
26% |
28% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
8% |
96% |
|
17 |
56% |
88% |
Median |
18 |
28% |
32% |
|
19 |
3% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
37% |
99.0% |
|
12 |
36% |
62% |
Median |
13 |
21% |
26% |
|
14 |
2% |
4% |
|
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-09-Ipsos-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
7 |
33% |
99.5% |
|
8 |
21% |
67% |
|
9 |
14% |
46% |
Median |
10 |
33% |
33% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–9 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.76%