Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 4–10 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.5% |
20.3–22.7% |
20.0–23.1% |
19.8–23.4% |
19.2–23.9% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
19.5% |
18.4–20.7% |
18.1–21.0% |
17.8–21.3% |
17.3–21.9% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
19.0% |
17.9–20.2% |
17.6–20.5% |
17.3–20.8% |
16.8–21.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
14.0–16.1% |
13.7–16.4% |
13.5–16.6% |
13.0–17.2% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.5% |
6.8–8.3% |
6.6–8.5% |
6.4–8.7% |
6.1–9.1% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.3–6.7% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.1% |
4.7–7.5% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.0% |
3.9–6.4% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.6% |
0.9–1.7% |
0.8–1.8% |
0.7–2.0% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.9–1.5% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.6–1.9% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.4–1.4% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
19 |
14% |
99.1% |
|
20 |
7% |
86% |
|
21 |
47% |
79% |
Median |
22 |
13% |
32% |
|
23 |
18% |
18% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
10% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
72% |
90% |
Median |
19 |
8% |
17% |
|
20 |
6% |
9% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
100% |
|
17 |
28% |
97% |
|
18 |
9% |
69% |
|
19 |
57% |
60% |
Median |
20 |
2% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
100% |
|
13 |
26% |
98% |
|
14 |
8% |
73% |
|
15 |
30% |
65% |
Median |
16 |
34% |
35% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
51% |
100% |
Median |
7 |
21% |
49% |
|
8 |
26% |
29% |
|
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
17% |
99.6% |
|
6 |
71% |
83% |
Median |
7 |
12% |
12% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
20% |
99.7% |
|
5 |
58% |
79% |
Median |
6 |
22% |
22% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
|
1 |
96% |
96% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
49% |
100% |
|
1 |
51% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–16 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–9 |
7–10 |
7–10 |
7–11 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
8% |
97% |
|
26 |
12% |
89% |
|
27 |
51% |
77% |
Median |
28 |
8% |
26% |
|
29 |
18% |
18% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
10% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
72% |
90% |
Median |
19 |
8% |
17% |
|
20 |
6% |
9% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
100% |
|
13 |
26% |
98% |
|
14 |
8% |
73% |
|
15 |
30% |
65% |
Median |
16 |
34% |
35% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-10-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
51% |
100% |
Median |
8 |
14% |
49% |
|
9 |
29% |
35% |
|
10 |
6% |
7% |
|
11 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–10 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2005
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.46%