Opinion Poll by Forsa, 11–17 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.1% |
20.1–22.2% |
19.8–22.5% |
19.5–22.7% |
19.0–23.2% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
19.0–21.1% |
18.7–21.4% |
18.5–21.6% |
18.0–22.1% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
19.0–21.1% |
18.7–21.4% |
18.5–21.6% |
18.0–22.1% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
13.2–14.9% |
12.9–15.2% |
12.7–15.4% |
12.3–15.9% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.4–6.6% |
5.3–6.8% |
5.1–7.0% |
4.9–7.3% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.9% |
5.3–6.6% |
5.2–6.8% |
5.0–6.9% |
4.8–7.2% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.5% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.3–4.8% |
3.1–5.1% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.4–2.1% |
1.3–2.2% |
1.2–2.3% |
1.1–2.5% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.2–1.9% |
1.2–2.0% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.3% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–1.0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
14% |
93% |
|
20 |
49% |
79% |
Median |
21 |
22% |
30% |
|
22 |
4% |
8% |
|
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
22% |
98.8% |
|
19 |
38% |
76% |
Median |
20 |
32% |
38% |
|
21 |
6% |
6% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
27% |
97% |
|
19 |
44% |
70% |
Median |
20 |
25% |
27% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
12 |
12% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
39% |
88% |
Median |
14 |
40% |
49% |
|
15 |
9% |
10% |
|
16 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
31% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
61% |
69% |
Median |
7 |
8% |
8% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
56% |
98% |
Median |
6 |
40% |
42% |
|
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
26% |
100% |
|
4 |
69% |
74% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
36% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
64% |
64% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
52% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
48% |
48% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
95% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
16% |
100% |
|
1 |
84% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
46% |
100% |
|
1 |
54% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
36% |
100% |
|
1 |
64% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
57% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
43% |
43% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
23–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–21 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–15 |
12–15 |
12–16 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
6–8 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
5% |
100% |
|
24 |
6% |
95% |
|
25 |
46% |
90% |
Median |
26 |
24% |
43% |
|
27 |
13% |
19% |
|
28 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
29 |
4% |
4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
22% |
98.8% |
|
19 |
38% |
76% |
Median |
20 |
32% |
38% |
|
21 |
6% |
6% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
12 |
12% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
39% |
88% |
Median |
14 |
40% |
49% |
|
15 |
9% |
10% |
|
16 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-17-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
16% |
100% |
|
7 |
51% |
84% |
Median |
8 |
27% |
33% |
|
9 |
6% |
6% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–17 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2505
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.92%