Opinion Poll by GMS, 19–25 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.3–23.7% |
19.9–24.2% |
19.5–24.6% |
18.7–25.5% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.4–21.7% |
18.0–22.1% |
17.6–22.6% |
16.9–23.4% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.5–19.6% |
16.1–20.1% |
15.7–20.5% |
15.0–21.3% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.6–16.5% |
13.2–16.9% |
12.9–17.3% |
12.3–18.1% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.1% |
5.2–7.2% |
5.0–7.5% |
4.8–7.8% |
4.4–8.3% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.6% |
4.3–8.2% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.6–5.9% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.3% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.7% |
0.9–3.1% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
0.7–2.8% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.4% |
0.2–1.7% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
16% |
96% |
|
20 |
7% |
80% |
|
21 |
9% |
73% |
|
22 |
59% |
64% |
Median |
23 |
5% |
5% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
15% |
98% |
|
18 |
40% |
84% |
Median |
19 |
7% |
43% |
|
20 |
10% |
36% |
|
21 |
14% |
26% |
|
22 |
11% |
12% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
16 |
20% |
96% |
|
17 |
59% |
76% |
Median |
18 |
9% |
17% |
|
19 |
5% |
8% |
|
20 |
3% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
12 |
49% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
16% |
51% |
Median |
14 |
18% |
35% |
|
15 |
11% |
17% |
|
16 |
5% |
6% |
|
17 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
10% |
100% |
|
5 |
24% |
90% |
|
6 |
58% |
66% |
Median |
7 |
7% |
8% |
|
8 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
5% |
100% |
|
5 |
9% |
95% |
|
6 |
35% |
86% |
|
7 |
47% |
50% |
Median |
8 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
9 |
3% |
3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
32% |
87% |
|
5 |
54% |
55% |
Median |
6 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
29% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
63% |
71% |
Median |
3 |
7% |
7% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
70% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
29% |
30% |
|
3 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
93% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
4% |
4% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
|
1 |
87% |
89% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
47% |
100% |
|
1 |
51% |
53% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
37% |
39% |
Last Result |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
19% |
100% |
|
1 |
81% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
23–30 |
23–30 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
14–20 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–16 |
12–16 |
12–17 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
8 |
0% |
6–8 |
6–8 |
6–11 |
5–11 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
2% |
97% |
|
25 |
16% |
95% |
|
26 |
20% |
80% |
|
27 |
15% |
59% |
|
28 |
40% |
44% |
Median |
29 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
30 |
3% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
16 |
20% |
96% |
|
17 |
59% |
76% |
Median |
18 |
9% |
17% |
|
19 |
5% |
8% |
|
20 |
3% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
12 |
49% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
16% |
51% |
Median |
14 |
18% |
35% |
|
15 |
11% |
17% |
|
16 |
5% |
6% |
|
17 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-10-25-GMS-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
9% |
98.9% |
|
7 |
21% |
90% |
|
8 |
65% |
69% |
Median |
9 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–25 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.71%