Opinion Poll by YouGov, 4–9 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
22.5% |
21.2–23.8% |
20.8–24.2% |
20.5–24.6% |
19.9–25.2% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
19.8% |
18.5–21.1% |
18.2–21.5% |
17.9–21.8% |
17.3–22.5% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
17.8% |
16.7–19.1% |
16.3–19.5% |
16.0–19.8% |
15.5–20.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
15.9% |
14.7–17.1% |
14.4–17.4% |
14.1–17.7% |
13.6–18.3% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
6.9% |
6.1–7.8% |
5.9–8.0% |
5.8–8.3% |
5.4–8.7% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.3% |
5.6–7.1% |
5.4–7.4% |
5.2–7.6% |
4.9–8.0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.7% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.2% |
3.7–6.5% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.5% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–2.0% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.4% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
20 |
13% |
99.0% |
|
21 |
66% |
86% |
Median |
22 |
4% |
20% |
|
23 |
8% |
16% |
|
24 |
8% |
8% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
7% |
93% |
|
19 |
37% |
87% |
Median |
20 |
46% |
50% |
|
21 |
2% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
23 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
27% |
94% |
|
17 |
51% |
66% |
Median |
18 |
13% |
15% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
8% |
100% |
|
14 |
46% |
92% |
Median |
15 |
13% |
47% |
|
16 |
29% |
34% |
|
17 |
5% |
5% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
15% |
96% |
|
7 |
55% |
81% |
Median |
8 |
26% |
26% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
9% |
100% |
|
6 |
45% |
91% |
Median |
7 |
46% |
46% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
4 |
36% |
98.6% |
|
5 |
50% |
63% |
Median |
6 |
13% |
13% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
94% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
6% |
6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
98% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
50% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
50% |
50% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
13% |
13% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
67% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
33% |
33% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
46% |
100% |
|
1 |
54% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
36% |
100% |
|
1 |
64% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
28 |
0% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
15–19 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
14 |
0% |
14–16 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
6 |
0% |
5–7 |
5–7 |
5–7 |
4–7 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
14% |
97% |
|
27 |
22% |
83% |
Median |
28 |
47% |
61% |
|
29 |
5% |
14% |
|
30 |
8% |
9% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
27% |
94% |
|
17 |
51% |
66% |
Median |
18 |
13% |
15% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
8% |
100% |
|
14 |
46% |
92% |
Median |
15 |
13% |
47% |
|
16 |
29% |
34% |
|
17 |
5% |
5% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-09-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
35% |
98.6% |
|
6 |
50% |
64% |
Median |
7 |
14% |
14% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–9 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1608
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.62%