Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 18–21 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.9–23.2% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.9–21.2% | 18.6–21.5% | 18.3–21.8% | 17.8–22.4% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 16.0–18.1% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.4–18.7% | 14.9–19.3% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 14.0–16.1% | 13.7–16.4% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.1–17.2% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.8–8.3% | 6.6–8.5% | 6.4–8.7% | 6.1–9.1% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.7–7.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.6% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 1 | 20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–21 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 17 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 14 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 1 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 1 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 47% | 88% | Median |
| 21 | 27% | 42% | |
| 22 | 12% | 15% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 18 | 32% | 99.3% | |
| 19 | 16% | 67% | |
| 20 | 50% | 52% | Median |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 6% | 97% | |
| 16 | 31% | 91% | |
| 17 | 49% | 60% | Median |
| 18 | 10% | 11% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 68% | 96% | Median |
| 15 | 25% | 28% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 100% | |
| 7 | 62% | 89% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 27% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 46% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 47% | 54% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 19% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 80% | 81% | Median |
| 6 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 36% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 11% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 93% | 94% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | |
| 1 | 86% | 86% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | |
| 1 | 66% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 2 | 26 | 0% | 25–28 | 25–28 | 24–28 | 24–29 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 20 | 0% | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–21 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 14 | 0% | 14–15 | 14–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 2 | 8 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 46% | 97% | |
| 26 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 27 | 32% | 45% | |
| 28 | 12% | 14% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 18 | 32% | 99.3% | |
| 19 | 16% | 67% | |
| 20 | 50% | 52% | Median |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 68% | 96% | Median |
| 15 | 25% | 28% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 67% | 96% | Median |
| 9 | 26% | 29% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–21 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2004
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.09%