Opinion Poll by Forsa, 22–28 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
22.7% |
21.5–24.0% |
21.2–24.3% |
20.9–24.6% |
20.3–25.3% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.9–21.2% |
18.5–21.6% |
18.3–21.9% |
17.7–22.5% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
19.0% |
17.9–20.2% |
17.6–20.5% |
17.3–20.9% |
16.8–21.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
12.0% |
11.1–13.0% |
10.8–13.3% |
10.6–13.5% |
10.2–14.0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.3% |
5.6–7.1% |
5.5–7.3% |
5.3–7.5% |
5.0–7.9% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.3–6.8% |
5.2–7.0% |
5.0–7.1% |
4.7–7.5% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.2–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.8–6.4% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.4–2.1% |
1.3–2.3% |
1.2–2.4% |
1.1–2.6% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.2–2.0% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.1–2.2% |
0.9–2.4% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
4% |
100% |
|
20 |
43% |
96% |
|
21 |
27% |
54% |
Median |
22 |
13% |
27% |
|
23 |
3% |
13% |
|
24 |
10% |
10% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
21% |
92% |
|
19 |
57% |
71% |
Median |
20 |
7% |
14% |
|
21 |
6% |
7% |
|
22 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
18 |
52% |
96% |
Median |
19 |
41% |
43% |
|
20 |
2% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
100% |
|
11 |
41% |
94% |
|
12 |
44% |
53% |
Median |
13 |
9% |
9% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
90% |
96% |
Median |
7 |
6% |
7% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
80% |
87% |
Median |
7 |
7% |
8% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
81% |
87% |
Median |
6 |
5% |
5% |
|
7 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
44% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
54% |
56% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
52% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
48% |
48% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
92% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
35% |
100% |
|
1 |
65% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
48% |
100% |
|
1 |
52% |
52% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
23% |
100% |
|
1 |
77% |
77% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
25% |
100% |
|
1 |
75% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
27 |
0% |
26–30 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
18 |
0% |
18–19 |
18–19 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
12 |
0% |
11–12 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–8 |
7–8 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
100% |
|
26 |
40% |
97% |
|
27 |
30% |
56% |
Median |
28 |
13% |
26% |
|
29 |
2% |
13% |
|
30 |
10% |
11% |
|
31 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
18 |
52% |
96% |
Median |
19 |
41% |
43% |
|
20 |
2% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
100% |
|
11 |
41% |
94% |
|
12 |
44% |
53% |
Median |
13 |
9% |
9% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
55% |
96% |
Median |
8 |
37% |
42% |
|
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–28 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1904
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.72%