Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 25–28 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
21.0% |
19.8–22.2% |
19.5–22.5% |
19.3–22.8% |
18.7–23.4% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.0% |
19.8–22.2% |
19.5–22.5% |
19.3–22.8% |
18.7–23.4% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
17.5% |
16.4–18.6% |
16.1–18.9% |
15.9–19.2% |
15.4–19.8% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
14.0–16.1% |
13.7–16.4% |
13.5–16.6% |
13.0–17.2% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.3–7.8% |
6.1–8.0% |
5.9–8.2% |
5.6–8.6% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.3–6.7% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.1% |
4.7–7.5% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.0% |
3.9–6.4% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.4% |
1.1–1.8% |
1.0–1.9% |
1.0–2.0% |
0.8–2.2% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
1.0–1.6% |
0.9–1.7% |
0.8–1.8% |
0.7–2.0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.2% |
0.6–1.3% |
0.5–1.4% |
0.4–1.5% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
100% |
|
19 |
60% |
97% |
Median |
20 |
14% |
37% |
|
21 |
4% |
23% |
|
22 |
19% |
19% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
16% |
100% |
|
19 |
18% |
83% |
|
20 |
4% |
66% |
|
21 |
53% |
62% |
Median |
22 |
9% |
10% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
100% |
|
16 |
7% |
96% |
|
17 |
78% |
90% |
Median |
18 |
10% |
11% |
|
19 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
37% |
97% |
|
15 |
57% |
60% |
Median |
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
63% |
99.6% |
Median |
7 |
34% |
36% |
|
8 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
11% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
84% |
89% |
Median |
7 |
5% |
6% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
57% |
100% |
Median |
5 |
41% |
43% |
|
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
37% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
63% |
63% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
95% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
98% |
98.6% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
23% |
100% |
|
1 |
77% |
77% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
29% |
29% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
27 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
19 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–15 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–8 |
7–9 |
7–9 |
7–10 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
20% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
14% |
79% |
|
26 |
5% |
65% |
|
27 |
52% |
61% |
Median |
28 |
6% |
8% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
100% |
|
19 |
60% |
97% |
Median |
20 |
14% |
37% |
|
21 |
4% |
23% |
|
22 |
19% |
19% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
37% |
97% |
|
15 |
57% |
60% |
Median |
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-11-28-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
62% |
99.6% |
Median |
8 |
32% |
38% |
|
9 |
5% |
6% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25–28 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2006
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.85%