Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 6–7 December 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
22.6% |
21.2–24.2% |
20.8–24.6% |
20.4–25.0% |
19.7–25.8% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.7–19.5% |
16.3–19.9% |
16.0–20.3% |
15.4–21.0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.7–19.5% |
16.3–19.9% |
16.0–20.3% |
15.4–21.0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.8–16.4% |
13.4–16.8% |
13.1–17.1% |
12.6–17.8% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.4% |
5.5–7.3% |
5.3–7.6% |
5.1–7.8% |
4.8–8.3% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.3–7.0% |
5.0–7.3% |
4.8–7.5% |
4.5–8.0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.6–6.8% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.2% |
1.2–2.4% |
1.1–2.5% |
0.9–2.9% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.1–2.2% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.8–2.6% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.4–1.4% |
0.3–1.6% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
2% |
98% |
|
21 |
30% |
96% |
|
22 |
62% |
66% |
Median |
23 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
63% |
98% |
Median |
17 |
27% |
35% |
|
18 |
6% |
8% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
65% |
98% |
Median |
17 |
6% |
33% |
|
18 |
26% |
27% |
|
19 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
30% |
98% |
|
15 |
64% |
68% |
Median |
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
6 |
88% |
96% |
Median |
7 |
7% |
8% |
|
8 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
32% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
66% |
68% |
Median |
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
68% |
93% |
Median |
6 |
25% |
25% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
28% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
71% |
72% |
Median |
3 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
29% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
71% |
71% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.8% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
|
1 |
96% |
96% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
8% |
100% |
|
1 |
92% |
92% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
13% |
13% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
5% |
100% |
|
1 |
95% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
28 |
0% |
27–28 |
27–28 |
25–29 |
24–31 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
16 |
0% |
16–17 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–20 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–15 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
8 |
0% |
6–8 |
6–8 |
6–8 |
6–9 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
26 |
2% |
97% |
|
27 |
25% |
95% |
|
28 |
67% |
70% |
Median |
29 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
63% |
98% |
Median |
17 |
27% |
35% |
|
18 |
6% |
8% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
30% |
98% |
|
15 |
64% |
68% |
Median |
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-07-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
26% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
8% |
74% |
|
8 |
64% |
65% |
Median |
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–7 December 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1259
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.55%