Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 2–15 December 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
23.5% |
21.8–25.2% |
21.4–25.7% |
21.0–26.2% |
20.2–27.0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.4–23.7% |
20.0–24.2% |
19.6–24.7% |
18.9–25.5% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.5–19.6% |
16.1–20.0% |
15.7–20.4% |
15.1–21.2% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
12.0% |
10.8–13.4% |
10.4–13.8% |
10.1–14.1% |
9.6–14.8% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.5% |
6.6–8.7% |
6.3–9.0% |
6.1–9.3% |
5.6–9.9% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.6% |
5.7–7.7% |
5.4–8.0% |
5.2–8.3% |
4.8–8.8% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.5% |
3.8–5.5% |
3.6–5.8% |
3.4–6.0% |
3.1–6.5% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–1.9% |
0.5–2.2% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.4% |
0.2–1.6% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.1–1.4% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
35% |
94% |
|
22 |
5% |
59% |
|
23 |
35% |
54% |
Median |
24 |
14% |
20% |
|
25 |
3% |
5% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
4% |
96% |
|
20 |
8% |
92% |
|
21 |
54% |
84% |
Median |
22 |
27% |
29% |
|
23 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
5% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
16 |
13% |
94% |
|
17 |
37% |
81% |
Median |
18 |
41% |
44% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
65% |
99.2% |
Median |
11 |
10% |
35% |
|
12 |
16% |
25% |
|
13 |
8% |
9% |
|
14 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
6 |
21% |
99.4% |
|
7 |
15% |
78% |
|
8 |
62% |
64% |
Median |
9 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
10% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
77% |
90% |
Median |
7 |
12% |
14% |
|
8 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
4% |
100% |
|
4 |
42% |
96% |
|
5 |
52% |
53% |
Median |
6 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
90% |
99.7% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
10% |
10% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
1 |
93% |
99.2% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
6% |
6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
41% |
100% |
|
1 |
59% |
59% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
17% |
100% |
|
1 |
83% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
75% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
25% |
25% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
29% |
100% |
|
1 |
71% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
73% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
26% |
27% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
29 |
0% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–31 |
26–33 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–24 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
10 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
9–14 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
7–9 |
7–9 |
7–9 |
6–11 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
35% |
94% |
|
28 |
5% |
59% |
|
29 |
37% |
54% |
Median |
30 |
4% |
17% |
|
31 |
11% |
13% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
33 |
2% |
2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
4% |
96% |
|
20 |
8% |
92% |
|
21 |
54% |
84% |
Median |
22 |
27% |
29% |
|
23 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
65% |
99.2% |
Median |
11 |
10% |
35% |
|
12 |
16% |
25% |
|
13 |
8% |
9% |
|
14 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-Allensbach-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
7 |
20% |
99.0% |
|
8 |
10% |
79% |
|
9 |
67% |
69% |
Median |
10 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–15 December 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1035
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.87%