Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 12–15 December 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.9% |
20.3–23.6% |
19.9–24.1% |
19.5–24.5% |
18.8–25.3% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.5–21.6% |
18.1–22.1% |
17.7–22.5% |
17.0–23.3% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.5–21.6% |
18.1–22.1% |
17.7–22.5% |
17.0–23.3% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.7–16.5% |
13.3–16.9% |
13.0–17.3% |
12.4–18.0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.1% |
5.3–7.1% |
5.0–7.5% |
4.8–7.7% |
4.4–8.2% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.2–7.1% |
4.9–7.3% |
4.7–7.6% |
4.4–8.1% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–5.9% |
4.0–6.2% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.5–7.0% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–2.0% |
0.5–2.3% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.1% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.4% |
0.2–1.6% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.1–1.3% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
98% |
|
19 |
5% |
96% |
|
20 |
26% |
91% |
|
21 |
21% |
65% |
Median |
22 |
22% |
43% |
|
23 |
9% |
22% |
|
24 |
13% |
13% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
24% |
97% |
|
18 |
10% |
73% |
|
19 |
43% |
63% |
Median |
20 |
16% |
20% |
|
21 |
3% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
17 |
18% |
98% |
|
18 |
19% |
80% |
|
19 |
26% |
61% |
Median |
20 |
7% |
35% |
|
21 |
12% |
28% |
|
22 |
15% |
16% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
10% |
98% |
|
13 |
21% |
88% |
|
14 |
37% |
67% |
Median |
15 |
14% |
30% |
|
16 |
13% |
16% |
|
17 |
2% |
3% |
|
18 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
23% |
92% |
|
6 |
51% |
69% |
Median |
7 |
10% |
18% |
|
8 |
7% |
7% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
34% |
98% |
|
6 |
41% |
64% |
Median |
7 |
21% |
23% |
|
8 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
11% |
100% |
|
4 |
32% |
89% |
|
5 |
47% |
57% |
Median |
6 |
9% |
10% |
|
7 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
85% |
98.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
14% |
14% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
1 |
77% |
99.5% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
22% |
22% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
18% |
100% |
|
1 |
78% |
82% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
51% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
49% |
49% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
39% |
39% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
64% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
36% |
36% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
80% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
20% |
20% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
27 |
0% |
25–30 |
24–30 |
24–31 |
22–31 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–23 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
14 |
0% |
12–16 |
12–16 |
12–17 |
11–18 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
6–8 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
5–10 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
24 |
6% |
98% |
|
25 |
6% |
92% |
|
26 |
25% |
86% |
|
27 |
21% |
61% |
Median |
28 |
23% |
40% |
|
29 |
2% |
17% |
|
30 |
11% |
15% |
|
31 |
4% |
4% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
24% |
97% |
|
18 |
10% |
73% |
|
19 |
43% |
63% |
Median |
20 |
16% |
20% |
|
21 |
3% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
10% |
98% |
|
13 |
21% |
88% |
|
14 |
37% |
67% |
Median |
15 |
14% |
30% |
|
16 |
13% |
16% |
|
17 |
2% |
3% |
|
18 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-12-15-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
30% |
98% |
|
7 |
36% |
68% |
Median |
8 |
23% |
32% |
|
9 |
8% |
9% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–15 December 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1065
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.82%