Opinion Poll by YouGov, 6–10 January 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.3% |
20.0–22.7% |
19.7–23.1% |
19.4–23.4% |
18.8–24.1% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
18.2% |
17.0–19.5% |
16.6–19.9% |
16.4–20.2% |
15.8–20.8% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
17.2% |
16.0–18.5% |
15.7–18.8% |
15.4–19.1% |
14.8–19.8% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
16.1% |
15.0–17.4% |
14.7–17.8% |
14.4–18.1% |
13.9–18.7% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
8.1% |
7.2–9.0% |
7.0–9.3% |
6.8–9.5% |
6.4–10.0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
6.1% |
5.4–6.9% |
5.2–7.2% |
5.0–7.4% |
4.7–7.8% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.2–6.8% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.9–7.3% |
4.6–7.7% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.4% |
1.1–1.9% |
1.0–2.0% |
0.9–2.1% |
0.8–2.4% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.5–1.4% |
0.4–1.6% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.5–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.4–1.6% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.3% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
48% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
27% |
51% |
Median |
21 |
17% |
24% |
|
22 |
7% |
8% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
35% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
16% |
64% |
Median |
18 |
4% |
48% |
|
19 |
2% |
44% |
|
20 |
43% |
43% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
16 |
57% |
96% |
Median |
17 |
11% |
40% |
|
18 |
28% |
29% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
14 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
15 |
24% |
95% |
|
16 |
60% |
71% |
Median |
17 |
5% |
11% |
|
18 |
6% |
6% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
21% |
98.6% |
|
8 |
63% |
78% |
Median |
9 |
15% |
15% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
33% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
61% |
67% |
Median |
7 |
7% |
7% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
6% |
100% |
|
5 |
33% |
94% |
|
6 |
59% |
61% |
Median |
7 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
77% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
22% |
23% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
|
1 |
93% |
96% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.8% |
99.0% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
60% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
40% |
40% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
55% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
45% |
45% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
65% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
35% |
35% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
86% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
14% |
14% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
25 |
0% |
25–26 |
25–26 |
25–27 |
24–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
17 |
0% |
16–20 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–20 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–18 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
8–10 |
8–10 |
7–10 |
7–10 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
64% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
32% |
36% |
Median |
27 |
2% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
35% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
16% |
64% |
Median |
18 |
4% |
48% |
|
19 |
2% |
44% |
|
20 |
43% |
43% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
14 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
15 |
24% |
95% |
|
16 |
60% |
71% |
Median |
17 |
5% |
11% |
|
18 |
6% |
6% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
4% |
100% |
|
8 |
17% |
96% |
|
9 |
63% |
79% |
Median |
10 |
16% |
16% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-10-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
77% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
22% |
23% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–10 January 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1561
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 4.63%