Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 9–13 January 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.1% |
19.7–22.7% |
19.3–23.2% |
18.9–23.5% |
18.2–24.3% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.5–21.5% |
18.1–21.9% |
17.8–22.3% |
17.1–23.1% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
17.0% |
15.6–18.4% |
15.3–18.8% |
15.0–19.2% |
14.3–19.9% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.7–16.4% |
13.4–16.8% |
13.1–17.1% |
12.5–17.8% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
7.1–9.1% |
6.8–9.4% |
6.6–9.7% |
6.2–10.2% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.9% |
5.1–6.9% |
4.9–7.1% |
4.7–7.4% |
4.4–7.9% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.2% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.6–6.8% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.2% |
0.9–2.4% |
0.8–2.7% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.9% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.8–2.2% |
0.7–2.4% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.6–1.5% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.4–1.9% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.2–1.3% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
3% |
100% |
|
18 |
9% |
97% |
|
19 |
7% |
87% |
|
20 |
68% |
80% |
Median |
21 |
11% |
12% |
|
22 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
18 |
59% |
95% |
Median |
19 |
5% |
36% |
|
20 |
7% |
30% |
|
21 |
20% |
24% |
|
22 |
4% |
4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
23% |
99.3% |
|
16 |
37% |
77% |
Median |
17 |
15% |
40% |
|
18 |
25% |
26% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
14 |
25% |
95% |
|
15 |
36% |
70% |
Median |
16 |
33% |
34% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
1.5% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
3% |
100% |
|
7 |
53% |
97% |
Median |
8 |
37% |
44% |
|
9 |
8% |
8% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
18% |
99.6% |
|
6 |
78% |
81% |
Median |
7 |
3% |
3% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
4 |
37% |
99.0% |
|
5 |
46% |
62% |
Median |
6 |
15% |
16% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
88% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
12% |
12% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
54% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
46% |
46% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
10% |
100% |
|
1 |
89% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
22% |
100% |
|
1 |
78% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
52% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
48% |
48% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
68% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
32% |
32% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
80% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
20% |
20% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
18 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–22 |
16–22 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
8–10 |
8–10 |
8–11 |
7–11 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
23 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
8% |
93% |
|
25 |
14% |
85% |
|
26 |
58% |
71% |
Median |
27 |
11% |
12% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
18 |
59% |
95% |
Median |
19 |
5% |
36% |
|
20 |
7% |
30% |
|
21 |
20% |
24% |
|
22 |
4% |
4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
14 |
25% |
95% |
|
15 |
36% |
70% |
Median |
16 |
33% |
34% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
1.5% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-01-13-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
43% |
98% |
Median |
9 |
14% |
55% |
|
10 |
38% |
41% |
|
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–13 January 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1202
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.77%