Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 5–18 January 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.2% | 22.6–26.0% | 22.1–26.5% | 21.7–27.0% | 20.9–27.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.9–24.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.2–20.2% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.2% | 11.4–17.0% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.0% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.1–6.4% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 1 | 22 | 21–24 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 20–27 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 12 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 1 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 1 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–9 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 12% | 93% | |
| 22 | 41% | 81% | Median |
| 23 | 13% | 39% | |
| 24 | 19% | 26% | |
| 25 | 5% | 7% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 18 | 34% | 94% | |
| 19 | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 20 | 7% | 24% | |
| 21 | 10% | 17% | |
| 22 | 4% | 7% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 6% | 93% | |
| 16 | 12% | 87% | |
| 17 | 31% | 75% | Median |
| 18 | 25% | 44% | |
| 19 | 18% | 19% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 12 | 51% | 95% | Median |
| 13 | 4% | 44% | |
| 14 | 26% | 39% | |
| 15 | 12% | 14% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 22% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 51% | 78% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 27% | |
| 8 | 12% | 14% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 15% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 62% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 20% | 22% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 22% | 100% | |
| 4 | 29% | 78% | Median |
| 5 | 48% | 49% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 1 | 53% | 99.0% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 46% | 46% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30% | 100% | |
| 1 | 68% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 37% | 100% | |
| 1 | 60% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | |
| 1 | 77% | 78% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | |
| 1 | 77% | 77% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 28% | 100% | |
| 1 | 71% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 30% | 30% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) | 3 | 29 | 0% | 28–31 | 27–32 | 25–33 | 25–34 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 19 | 0% | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 16–24 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 12 | 0% | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 2 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 27 | 4% | 96% | |
| 28 | 36% | 92% | Median |
| 29 | 20% | 55% | |
| 30 | 22% | 36% | |
| 31 | 7% | 14% | |
| 32 | 4% | 7% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 18 | 34% | 94% | |
| 19 | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 20 | 7% | 24% | |
| 21 | 10% | 17% | |
| 22 | 4% | 7% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 12 | 51% | 95% | Median |
| 13 | 4% | 44% | |
| 14 | 26% | 39% | |
| 15 | 12% | 14% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 26% | 96% | |
| 7 | 58% | 70% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 12% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 1 | 53% | 99.0% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 46% | 46% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–18 January 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1023
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.42%