Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 13–17 February 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
22.7% |
21.2–24.3% |
20.8–24.8% |
20.4–25.2% |
19.7–25.9% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
21.0% |
19.5–22.5% |
19.1–23.0% |
18.7–23.4% |
18.1–24.1% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
16.0% |
14.7–17.4% |
14.3–17.8% |
14.0–18.2% |
13.4–18.9% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
16.0% |
14.7–17.4% |
14.3–17.8% |
14.0–18.2% |
13.4–18.9% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.0% |
5.9–8.3% |
5.7–8.6% |
5.3–9.1% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.3% |
5.5–7.3% |
5.2–7.6% |
5.1–7.8% |
4.7–8.3% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.6–6.8% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.0% |
0.6–2.3% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.4–1.4% |
0.3–1.7% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.3–1.5% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.2–1.3% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
20 |
36% |
99.5% |
|
21 |
9% |
63% |
|
22 |
5% |
54% |
Median |
23 |
45% |
50% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
25 |
4% |
4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
100% |
|
18 |
10% |
98% |
|
19 |
46% |
88% |
Median |
20 |
4% |
42% |
|
21 |
36% |
38% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
83% |
98.7% |
Median |
15 |
7% |
16% |
|
16 |
4% |
8% |
|
17 |
4% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
14 |
83% |
99.7% |
Median |
15 |
4% |
16% |
|
16 |
5% |
13% |
|
17 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
18 |
6% |
6% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
48% |
96% |
Median |
7 |
4% |
48% |
|
8 |
43% |
44% |
|
9 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
6 |
16% |
97% |
|
7 |
80% |
81% |
Median |
8 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
51% |
99.7% |
Median |
5 |
11% |
49% |
|
6 |
38% |
38% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
46% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
7% |
100% |
|
1 |
92% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
5% |
100% |
|
1 |
95% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
49% |
100% |
|
1 |
51% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
45% |
100% |
|
1 |
55% |
55% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
54% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
46% |
46% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
60% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
40% |
40% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
25–31 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–22 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
14 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–16 |
14–17 |
13–17 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–9 |
7–9 |
5–9 |
5–10 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
|
27 |
7% |
98.6% |
|
28 |
39% |
92% |
|
29 |
5% |
52% |
Median |
30 |
44% |
48% |
|
31 |
4% |
4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
100% |
|
18 |
10% |
98% |
|
19 |
46% |
88% |
Median |
20 |
4% |
42% |
|
21 |
36% |
38% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
83% |
98.7% |
Median |
15 |
7% |
16% |
|
16 |
4% |
8% |
|
17 |
4% |
4% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
7 |
50% |
96% |
Median |
8 |
3% |
46% |
|
9 |
42% |
43% |
|
10 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-02-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
46% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–17 February 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1207
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.79%