Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 11–13 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.1% |
19.5–22.8% |
19.0–23.3% |
18.6–23.7% |
17.9–24.6% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.5–21.8% |
18.0–22.2% |
17.6–22.7% |
16.9–23.5% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
17.0% |
15.5–18.6% |
15.1–19.1% |
14.8–19.5% |
14.1–20.3% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
16.0% |
14.6–17.6% |
14.1–18.0% |
13.8–18.4% |
13.2–19.2% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.2% |
5.8–8.5% |
5.6–8.8% |
5.2–9.4% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.6% |
4.2–8.1% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.6–5.9% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.3–2.7% |
1.2–2.9% |
1.0–3.2% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.9% |
0.4–2.2% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.9% |
0.4–2.2% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.4–1.5% |
0.3–1.7% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.1–1.3% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
19 |
4% |
97% |
|
20 |
7% |
93% |
|
21 |
3% |
86% |
|
22 |
83% |
83% |
Median |
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
17 |
83% |
99.3% |
Median |
18 |
3% |
17% |
|
19 |
6% |
14% |
|
20 |
6% |
8% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.5% |
99.4% |
|
15 |
2% |
98% |
|
16 |
4% |
96% |
|
17 |
90% |
92% |
Median |
18 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
7% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
93% |
|
15 |
85% |
90% |
Median |
16 |
2% |
5% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
|
18 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
87% |
97% |
Median |
7 |
9% |
11% |
|
8 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
86% |
95% |
Median |
6 |
7% |
9% |
|
7 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
86% |
94% |
Median |
5 |
7% |
7% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
94% |
96% |
Median |
3 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
1 |
94% |
98.5% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
4% |
4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
82% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
14% |
18% |
Last Result |
2 |
4% |
4% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
|
1 |
95% |
96% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
93% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
9% |
100% |
|
1 |
91% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
89% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
11% |
11% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
5% |
100% |
|
1 |
95% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–27 |
24–27 |
23–28 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
17 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–22 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
17 |
0% |
17 |
16–17 |
15–17 |
13–19 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–8 |
7–8 |
6–9 |
6–10 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
1–2 |
1–3 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
25 |
7% |
97% |
|
26 |
5% |
90% |
|
27 |
83% |
85% |
Median |
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
17 |
83% |
99.3% |
Median |
18 |
3% |
17% |
|
19 |
6% |
14% |
|
20 |
6% |
8% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.5% |
99.4% |
|
15 |
2% |
98% |
|
16 |
4% |
96% |
|
17 |
90% |
92% |
Median |
18 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
100% |
|
7 |
83% |
96% |
Median |
8 |
10% |
13% |
|
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-13-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
94% |
96% |
Median |
3 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–13 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 983
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.91%