Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 18–19 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.9% |
20.5–23.5% |
20.1–24.0% |
19.7–24.3% |
19.0–25.1% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.6–21.5% |
18.2–21.9% |
17.9–22.3% |
17.2–23.1% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.6–19.4% |
16.2–19.9% |
15.9–20.2% |
15.3–20.9% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
13.0% |
11.9–14.3% |
11.6–14.7% |
11.3–15.0% |
10.7–15.7% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.0% |
5.9–8.3% |
5.7–8.5% |
5.3–9.0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.1% |
5.3–7.0% |
5.1–7.3% |
4.9–7.6% |
4.5–8.0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.0–5.2% |
2.7–5.6% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.7% |
1.5–2.8% |
1.4–3.0% |
1.2–3.3% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.7–1.9% |
0.5–2.2% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.7–1.9% |
0.5–2.2% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.2% |
0.5–1.4% |
0.4–1.5% |
0.4–1.7% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.4–1.4% |
0.3–1.6% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
4% |
98% |
|
20 |
11% |
95% |
|
21 |
73% |
84% |
Median |
22 |
10% |
10% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
17 |
9% |
98.9% |
|
18 |
4% |
90% |
|
19 |
73% |
85% |
Median |
20 |
10% |
12% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
11% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
4% |
89% |
|
17 |
51% |
85% |
Median |
18 |
23% |
34% |
|
19 |
8% |
12% |
|
20 |
4% |
4% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
100% |
|
11 |
3% |
94% |
|
12 |
22% |
91% |
|
13 |
4% |
69% |
|
14 |
23% |
65% |
Median |
15 |
42% |
42% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
75% |
98% |
Median |
7 |
14% |
23% |
|
8 |
6% |
10% |
|
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
20% |
100% |
|
5 |
15% |
80% |
|
6 |
14% |
65% |
|
7 |
49% |
51% |
Median |
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
32% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
57% |
68% |
Median |
5 |
8% |
11% |
|
6 |
3% |
3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
88% |
97% |
Median |
3 |
9% |
9% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
99.6% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
86% |
99.6% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
14% |
14% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
42% |
100% |
|
1 |
56% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
59% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
41% |
41% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
56% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
44% |
44% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
86% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
14% |
14% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
28 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
24–30 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–22 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
17 |
0% |
15–19 |
15–19 |
15–20 |
15–20 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–9 |
7–9 |
7–10 |
6–10 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2–3 |
1–3 |
1–3 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
2% |
98.5% |
|
26 |
31% |
96% |
|
27 |
7% |
65% |
|
28 |
51% |
59% |
Median |
29 |
2% |
8% |
|
30 |
5% |
6% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
17 |
9% |
98.9% |
|
18 |
4% |
90% |
|
19 |
73% |
85% |
Median |
20 |
10% |
12% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
11% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
4% |
89% |
|
17 |
51% |
85% |
Median |
18 |
23% |
34% |
|
19 |
8% |
12% |
|
20 |
4% |
4% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
75% |
98% |
Median |
8 |
12% |
24% |
|
9 |
8% |
12% |
|
10 |
4% |
4% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-19-Infratestdimap-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
88% |
97% |
Median |
3 |
9% |
9% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–19 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1235
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.95%