Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 17–19 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
23.5% |
21.8–25.3% |
21.3–25.8% |
20.9–26.2% |
20.1–27.1% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
21.0% |
19.4–22.8% |
19.0–23.3% |
18.6–23.7% |
17.9–24.5% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.6–16.5% |
13.2–16.9% |
12.9–17.3% |
12.2–18.1% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
12.6–15.5% |
12.3–15.9% |
11.9–16.3% |
11.3–17.0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.6% |
5.7–7.7% |
5.4–8.0% |
5.2–8.3% |
4.8–8.9% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
3.9–6.2% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.4–7.0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
3.9–6.2% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.4–7.0% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.9% |
2.3–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.6% |
1.2–2.3% |
1.1–2.5% |
1.0–2.6% |
0.8–3.0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–2.0% |
0.5–2.3% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.5% |
0.3–1.7% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.3% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
20 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
21 |
7% |
95% |
|
22 |
5% |
87% |
|
23 |
11% |
83% |
|
24 |
72% |
72% |
Median |
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
3% |
96% |
|
19 |
71% |
93% |
Median |
20 |
14% |
22% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
22 |
7% |
7% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
14 |
6% |
96% |
|
15 |
84% |
90% |
Median |
16 |
5% |
6% |
|
17 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
69% |
100% |
Median |
12 |
10% |
31% |
|
13 |
14% |
21% |
|
14 |
2% |
7% |
|
15 |
2% |
5% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
69% |
99.9% |
Median |
6 |
9% |
31% |
|
7 |
19% |
22% |
|
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
9% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
91% |
|
5 |
80% |
89% |
Median |
6 |
9% |
9% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
4 |
9% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
12% |
91% |
|
6 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
13% |
100% |
|
3 |
85% |
87% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
79% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
21% |
21% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
|
1 |
96% |
96% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.9% |
99.3% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
94% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
24% |
100% |
|
1 |
76% |
76% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
21% |
100% |
|
1 |
79% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
30 |
0% |
28–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
25–31 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
19 |
0% |
19–20 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–16 |
13–16 |
12–17 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
7–9 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
6–11 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
27 |
7% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
5% |
92% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
30 |
82% |
86% |
Median |
31 |
4% |
4% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
3% |
96% |
|
19 |
71% |
93% |
Median |
20 |
14% |
22% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
22 |
7% |
7% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
14 |
6% |
96% |
|
15 |
84% |
90% |
Median |
16 |
5% |
6% |
|
17 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
10% |
94% |
|
8 |
6% |
85% |
|
9 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
10 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
79% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
21% |
21% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–19 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 989
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.44%