Opinion Poll by YouGov, 3–7 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
22.7% |
21.4–24.0% |
21.1–24.4% |
20.8–24.7% |
20.2–25.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.8–23.3% |
20.4–23.7% |
20.1–24.0% |
19.5–24.7% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.9–16.2% |
13.7–16.5% |
13.4–16.8% |
12.9–17.3% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.9–16.2% |
13.7–16.5% |
13.4–16.8% |
12.9–17.3% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.4% |
5.7–7.2% |
5.5–7.4% |
5.3–7.6% |
5.0–8.0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.8% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.1–6.2% |
3.8–6.5% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.8% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.1–6.2% |
3.8–6.5% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.1% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.6% |
1.3–2.1% |
1.2–2.2% |
1.1–2.3% |
1.0–2.6% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.5% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.6–1.9% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.4% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.3% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
3% |
97% |
|
21 |
18% |
94% |
|
22 |
55% |
76% |
Median |
23 |
17% |
21% |
|
24 |
3% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
19 |
24% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
12% |
75% |
|
21 |
37% |
63% |
Median |
22 |
24% |
26% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
66% |
99.7% |
Median |
14 |
9% |
34% |
|
15 |
20% |
25% |
|
16 |
3% |
4% |
|
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
97% |
|
14 |
35% |
94% |
|
15 |
17% |
58% |
Median |
16 |
14% |
41% |
|
17 |
28% |
28% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
86% |
92% |
Median |
7 |
6% |
6% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
53% |
99.5% |
Median |
5 |
39% |
46% |
|
6 |
8% |
8% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
24% |
99.7% |
|
5 |
55% |
76% |
Median |
6 |
21% |
21% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
76% |
95% |
Median |
3 |
19% |
19% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
32% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
67% |
68% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
82% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
18% |
18% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
15% |
100% |
|
1 |
84% |
85% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
29% |
100% |
|
1 |
69% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
58% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
42% |
42% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
82% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
18% |
18% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
26% |
26% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
29 |
0% |
27–29 |
27–29 |
26–31 |
25–31 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
13–17 |
12–17 |
12–17 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
7 |
0% |
7–8 |
6–8 |
5–8 |
5–8 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
98% |
|
27 |
16% |
96% |
|
28 |
29% |
80% |
Median |
29 |
46% |
50% |
|
30 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
31 |
3% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
19 |
24% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
12% |
75% |
|
21 |
37% |
63% |
Median |
22 |
24% |
26% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
97% |
|
14 |
35% |
94% |
|
15 |
17% |
58% |
Median |
16 |
14% |
41% |
|
17 |
28% |
28% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
96% |
|
7 |
70% |
92% |
Median |
8 |
22% |
22% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-07-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
32% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
67% |
68% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–7 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1732
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.62%