Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 13–17 November 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
23.5% |
22.0–25.1% |
21.5–25.6% |
21.2–26.0% |
20.5–26.8% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
21.0% |
19.5–22.6% |
19.1–23.0% |
18.8–23.4% |
18.1–24.2% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
16.0% |
14.7–17.4% |
14.3–17.8% |
14.0–18.2% |
13.4–18.9% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
13.0% |
11.8–14.3% |
11.5–14.7% |
11.2–15.0% |
10.7–15.7% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.6% |
5.7–7.6% |
5.5–7.9% |
5.3–8.1% |
4.9–8.6% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.2–7.0% |
5.0–7.3% |
4.8–7.5% |
4.4–8.0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.1% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.7–5.7% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
1.9–4.5% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.6% |
1.2–2.1% |
1.1–2.3% |
1.0–2.5% |
0.9–2.8% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.1% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.3–1.5% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.3–1.5% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
3% |
96% |
|
22 |
72% |
93% |
Median |
23 |
14% |
21% |
|
24 |
7% |
7% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
8% |
93% |
|
19 |
11% |
85% |
|
20 |
67% |
75% |
Median |
21 |
6% |
8% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
15 |
74% |
97% |
Median |
16 |
13% |
23% |
|
17 |
7% |
11% |
|
18 |
4% |
4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
68% |
98.9% |
Median |
12 |
12% |
31% |
|
13 |
11% |
19% |
|
14 |
4% |
8% |
|
15 |
4% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
19% |
94% |
|
7 |
74% |
75% |
Median |
8 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
18% |
98% |
|
6 |
3% |
80% |
|
7 |
76% |
77% |
Median |
8 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
90% |
93% |
Median |
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
4% |
100% |
|
3 |
90% |
96% |
Median |
4 |
6% |
6% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
10% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
89% |
90% |
Median |
3 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
77% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
22% |
23% |
Last Result |
2 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
94% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
22% |
100% |
|
1 |
78% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
30 |
0% |
28–30 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
20 |
0% |
18–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
17–22 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
15 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
14–18 |
13–18 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
10 |
0% |
8–10 |
8–10 |
7–10 |
6–11 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–3 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
3% |
97% |
|
28 |
6% |
94% |
|
29 |
6% |
88% |
|
30 |
77% |
82% |
Median |
31 |
5% |
5% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
8% |
93% |
|
19 |
11% |
85% |
|
20 |
67% |
75% |
Median |
21 |
6% |
8% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
15 |
74% |
97% |
Median |
16 |
13% |
23% |
|
17 |
7% |
11% |
|
18 |
4% |
4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
8 |
14% |
97% |
|
9 |
8% |
83% |
|
10 |
74% |
76% |
Median |
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-11-17-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
10% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
89% |
90% |
Median |
3 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–17 November 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1201
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.31%