Opinion Poll by Forsa, 4 December 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
23.5% |
22.4–24.6% |
22.1–24.9% |
21.8–25.2% |
21.3–25.7% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
21.0–23.1% |
20.7–23.4% |
20.4–23.7% |
19.9–24.2% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
13.1–14.9% |
12.9–15.2% |
12.7–15.4% |
12.3–15.9% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
13.1–14.9% |
12.9–15.2% |
12.7–15.4% |
12.3–15.9% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.6% |
6.0–7.2% |
5.8–7.4% |
5.6–7.6% |
5.4–7.9% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.5–5.6% |
4.3–5.8% |
4.2–5.9% |
4.0–6.2% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.6% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.3–4.8% |
3.1–5.1% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
3.5% |
3.1–4.0% |
3.0–4.2% |
2.9–4.3% |
2.7–4.6% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.5–2.1% |
1.4–2.3% |
1.3–2.4% |
1.2–2.6% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
1.0–1.5% |
0.9–1.6% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.9% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.0% |
0.5–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–1.0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
6% |
100% |
|
21 |
5% |
94% |
|
22 |
20% |
89% |
|
23 |
65% |
69% |
Median |
24 |
4% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
14% |
98.9% |
|
21 |
80% |
85% |
Median |
22 |
2% |
5% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
3% |
100% |
|
12 |
7% |
97% |
|
13 |
41% |
90% |
Median |
14 |
47% |
49% |
|
15 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
6% |
100% |
|
13 |
33% |
94% |
|
14 |
52% |
61% |
Median |
15 |
6% |
8% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
55% |
97% |
Median |
7 |
41% |
42% |
|
8 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
9% |
100% |
|
5 |
73% |
91% |
Median |
6 |
18% |
18% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
14% |
100% |
|
4 |
81% |
86% |
Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
30% |
100% |
|
3 |
40% |
70% |
Median |
4 |
28% |
29% |
|
5 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
23% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
77% |
77% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
23% |
100% |
|
1 |
77% |
77% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
33% |
100% |
|
1 |
67% |
67% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
35% |
100% |
|
1 |
65% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
26% |
26% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
30 |
0% |
28–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
27–32 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
21 |
0% |
20–21 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
14 |
0% |
13–14 |
12–15 |
12–15 |
12–16 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
8 |
0% |
7–9 |
7–9 |
7–9 |
7–10 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
6% |
93% |
|
29 |
12% |
88% |
|
30 |
73% |
76% |
Median |
31 |
2% |
3% |
|
32 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
14% |
98.9% |
|
21 |
80% |
85% |
Median |
22 |
2% |
5% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
6% |
100% |
|
13 |
33% |
94% |
|
14 |
52% |
61% |
Median |
15 |
6% |
8% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
36% |
100% |
|
8 |
21% |
64% |
Median |
9 |
43% |
44% |
|
10 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-04-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
23% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
77% |
77% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4 December 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2501
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.92%