Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 12–14 December 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
25.0% |
23.2–26.9% |
22.7–27.4% |
22.3–27.9% |
21.4–28.8% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.3–23.8% |
19.8–24.4% |
19.4–24.8% |
18.6–25.7% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
12.6–15.6% |
12.3–16.1% |
11.9–16.5% |
11.3–17.2% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
12.6–15.6% |
12.3–16.1% |
11.9–16.5% |
11.3–17.2% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.7–8.5% |
5.5–8.8% |
5.0–9.4% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
3.9–6.3% |
3.7–6.6% |
3.4–7.1% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.0–5.2% |
2.9–5.5% |
2.6–6.0% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.8–4.8% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.8–2.1% |
0.8–2.3% |
0.6–2.7% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.9% |
0.4–2.2% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.2–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.2–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.0–1.0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
58% |
97% |
Median |
23 |
19% |
39% |
|
24 |
14% |
20% |
|
25 |
2% |
6% |
|
26 |
3% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
4% |
98% |
|
20 |
6% |
94% |
|
21 |
2% |
88% |
|
22 |
19% |
85% |
|
23 |
65% |
67% |
Median |
24 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
7% |
96% |
|
13 |
20% |
88% |
|
14 |
4% |
68% |
|
15 |
56% |
64% |
Median |
16 |
8% |
8% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
11 |
16% |
99.4% |
|
12 |
58% |
84% |
Median |
13 |
13% |
25% |
|
14 |
9% |
12% |
|
15 |
3% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
11% |
92% |
|
7 |
73% |
81% |
Median |
8 |
6% |
8% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
12% |
98.7% |
|
5 |
71% |
87% |
Median |
6 |
15% |
16% |
|
7 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
7% |
100% |
|
3 |
75% |
93% |
Median |
4 |
9% |
18% |
|
5 |
9% |
9% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
80% |
95% |
Median |
4 |
15% |
16% |
|
5 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
75% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
24% |
25% |
|
3 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
40% |
98.6% |
Last Result |
2 |
59% |
59% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
27% |
29% |
Last Result |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
26% |
100% |
|
1 |
74% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
24% |
26% |
Last Result |
2 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
86% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
14% |
14% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
29 |
0% |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–34 |
27–35 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
23 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–25 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
12 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–14 |
11–15 |
10–15 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
8 |
0% |
8–9 |
7–9 |
7–9 |
6–10 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–3 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
29 |
62% |
97% |
Median |
30 |
14% |
35% |
|
31 |
10% |
20% |
|
32 |
2% |
11% |
|
33 |
4% |
8% |
|
34 |
3% |
5% |
|
35 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
4% |
98% |
|
20 |
6% |
94% |
|
21 |
2% |
88% |
|
22 |
19% |
85% |
|
23 |
65% |
67% |
Median |
24 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
11 |
16% |
99.4% |
|
12 |
58% |
84% |
Median |
13 |
13% |
25% |
|
14 |
9% |
12% |
|
15 |
3% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
7 |
7% |
98.8% |
|
8 |
71% |
92% |
Median |
9 |
20% |
21% |
|
10 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-14-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
75% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
24% |
25% |
|
3 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 December 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 905
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.45%