Opinion Poll by Forsa, 19–22 December 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
24.3% |
22.3–26.4% |
21.8–27.0% |
21.3–27.5% |
20.4–28.5% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.1–24.1% |
19.6–24.6% |
19.2–25.1% |
18.3–26.1% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
12.5–15.8% |
12.1–16.3% |
11.7–16.7% |
11.0–17.6% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
14.0% |
12.5–15.8% |
12.1–16.3% |
11.7–16.7% |
11.0–17.6% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.7% |
5.7–8.1% |
5.4–8.5% |
5.2–8.8% |
4.7–9.5% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.1–6.2% |
3.9–6.5% |
3.6–6.8% |
3.3–7.4% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
3.4% |
2.7–4.4% |
2.5–4.7% |
2.3–4.9% |
2.0–5.5% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.1–4.2% |
2.0–4.5% |
1.7–5.0% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.6% |
1.2–2.4% |
1.0–2.6% |
0.9–2.8% |
0.7–3.2% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.1% |
0.6–2.3% |
0.5–2.7% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.4–1.4% |
0.3–1.6% |
0.2–1.9% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.4–1.4% |
0.3–1.6% |
0.2–1.9% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.1–1.2% |
0.1–1.5% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.0% |
0.0–1.2% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.0% |
0.0–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
71% |
98% |
Median |
23 |
3% |
27% |
|
24 |
24% |
24% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
63% |
99.9% |
Median |
20 |
10% |
37% |
|
21 |
24% |
27% |
|
22 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
12 |
12% |
99.5% |
|
13 |
62% |
87% |
Median |
14 |
2% |
25% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
16 |
23% |
23% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
23% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
11% |
76% |
|
14 |
62% |
65% |
Median |
15 |
2% |
3% |
|
16 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
24% |
100% |
|
6 |
64% |
76% |
Median |
7 |
11% |
12% |
|
8 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
27% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
11% |
73% |
|
6 |
62% |
62% |
Median |
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
3 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
4 |
96% |
96% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
3 |
96% |
98.6% |
Median |
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
25% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
72% |
75% |
Median |
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
26% |
100% |
|
1 |
72% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.7% |
99.8% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
67% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
33% |
33% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-basisdemokratischeparteideutschland.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
38% |
100% |
|
1 |
62% |
62% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
14% |
100% |
|
1 |
86% |
86% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) |
3 |
28 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
27–31 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
19 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–22 |
19–23 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
14 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–14 |
12–15 |
12–16 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
10 |
0% |
8–10 |
8–10 |
7–10 |
7–10 |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–3 |
1–3 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu–familie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
62% |
98% |
Median |
29 |
2% |
36% |
|
30 |
34% |
35% |
|
31 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
63% |
99.9% |
Median |
20 |
10% |
37% |
|
21 |
24% |
27% |
|
22 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
23% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
11% |
76% |
|
14 |
62% |
65% |
Median |
15 |
2% |
3% |
|
16 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
25% |
97% |
|
9 |
11% |
72% |
|
10 |
61% |
61% |
Median |
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-22-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-partei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
25% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
72% |
75% |
Median |
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–22 December 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 741
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.32%