Opinion Poll by Forsa, 12–13 March 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 26.6% 24.9–28.4% 24.4–29.0% 23.9–29.4% 23.1–30.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0% 13.8–18.4% 13.2–19.1%
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) 0.0% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 7.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 6.0–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.8%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 1 24 23–24 22–25 22–26 22–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 1 17 14–17 14–17 13–17 12–17
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) 1 14 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 1 14 13–14 13–15 12–15 11–15
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 1 8 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 1 4 4 4–5 4–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 1 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 1 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Die PARTEI (NI) 1 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 1 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 9% 99.9%  
23 6% 91%  
24 76% 85% Median
25 6% 9%  
26 0.5% 3%  
27 1.2% 2%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 0.5% 98%  
14 13% 97%  
15 12% 84%  
16 3% 72%  
17 69% 69% Median
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 10% 98%  
14 71% 88% Median
15 4% 16%  
16 5% 13%  
17 8% 8%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.8% 100%  
12 3% 99.2%  
13 24% 96%  
14 64% 72% Median
15 7% 7%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.6% 100%  
6 18% 99.4%  
7 14% 81%  
8 61% 68% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.3% 100%  
3 2% 99.7%  
4 92% 98% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 60% 99.9% Median
3 29% 40%  
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 5% 100%  
3 82% 95% Median
4 12% 13%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 81% 98% Median
3 18% 18%  
4 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 90% 98% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 93% 100% Last Result, Median
2 6% 7%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 90% 98% Last Result, Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Median
1 42% 42% Last Result
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 27% 27% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100%  
1 64% 64% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Median
1 20% 20% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 3 32 0% 30–33 30–33 30–35 30–36
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) 1 14 0% 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 1 17 0% 14–17 14–17 13–17 12–17
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 2 6 0% 6–7 6–7 5–7 4–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 2 5 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 18% 99.7%  
31 11% 82%  
32 59% 71% Median
33 7% 11%  
34 1.2% 5%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 10% 98%  
14 71% 88% Median
15 4% 16%  
16 5% 13%  
17 8% 8%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 0.5% 98%  
14 13% 97%  
15 12% 84%  
16 3% 72%  
17 69% 69% Median
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.6% 100%  
5 2% 99.4%  
6 74% 97% Median
7 23% 23%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 61% 99.5% Median
6 19% 38%  
7 19% 19%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations