Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 5–8 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 22.3% 21.1–23.5% 20.8–23.8% 20.5–24.1% 20.0–24.7%
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) 0.0% 19.0% 17.9–20.1% 17.6–20.5% 17.4–20.7% 16.9–21.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 15.0–18.2% 14.5–18.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.5% 10.7–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.2% 5.6–7.0% 5.4–7.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.0–7.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–1.0%
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 1 22 20–22 20–22 20–23 19–24
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) 1 16 16–18 16–19 16–20 16–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 1 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 1 12 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 1 7 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 1 7 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 1 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 1 4 4 4 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 1 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 1 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Die PARTEI (NI) 1 1 1 1 1 1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.6%  
20 22% 99.4%  
21 9% 77%  
22 65% 69% Median
23 2% 3%  
24 1.1% 1.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 58% 100% Median
17 17% 42%  
18 17% 25%  
19 4% 7%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.8%  
15 21% 99.3%  
16 46% 78% Median
17 31% 32%  
18 1.4% 1.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 29% 99.6%  
11 9% 70%  
12 57% 61% Median
13 4% 4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 23% 96%  
7 70% 72% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 40% 94%  
7 54% 54% Median
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 80% 87% Median
6 7% 7%  
7 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 93% 96% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 34% 100%  
3 65% 66% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 83% 96% Median
3 13% 13%  
4 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Median
1 47% 47% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 36% 36% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Median
1 39% 39% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 5% 5% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP) 3 29 0% 26–29 26–29 26–29 25–31
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) 1 16 0% 16–18 16–19 16–20 16–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 1 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 2 8 0% 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 2 8 0% 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) – Familienpartei Deutschlands (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.4% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.6%  
26 10% 98%  
27 5% 88%  
28 19% 83%  
29 63% 64% Median
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.6% 0.6%  
32 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 58% 100% Median
17 17% 42%  
18 17% 25%  
19 4% 7%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.8%  
15 21% 99.3%  
16 46% 78% Median
17 31% 32%  
18 1.4% 1.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 4% 100%  
7 23% 96%  
8 70% 73% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 4% 100%  
7 32% 96%  
8 63% 65% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations