Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for ARD, 4–6 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.5–28.6% 25.0–29.1% 24.7–29.5% 23.9–30.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.6–20.4% 17.2–20.8% 16.9–21.2% 16.3–21.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.4–16.7% 13.1–17.0% 12.6–17.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.3–13.9% 9.8–14.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.0–12.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.2% 4.0–6.4% 3.7–6.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.9%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 24–28 24–28 24–28 22–30
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–20 16–20 16–20 15–21
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 13–16 12–16 12–17 12–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 100%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 21% 98%  
25 13% 77%  
26 31% 64% Median
27 10% 33%  
28 22% 23%  
29 0.2% 0.9%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.3% 100%  
16 9% 98.7%  
17 22% 90%  
18 45% 68% Median
19 13% 23%  
20 9% 10%  
21 1.1% 1.5%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 5% 99.8%  
13 29% 94%  
14 34% 65% Median
15 17% 31%  
16 11% 14%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 17% 98%  
11 55% 80% Median
12 18% 25%  
13 6% 7%  
14 1.0% 1.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.8% 100%  
8 10% 99.2%  
9 38% 89%  
10 40% 51% Median
11 10% 10%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 11% 99.5%  
5 64% 88% Median
6 23% 24%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 39% 99.9%  
4 55% 61% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 75% 83% Median
4 7% 8%  
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 25% 100%  
2 66% 75% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 89% 97% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 89% 91% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 83% 83% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 24–28 24–28 24–28 22–30
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 2–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 100%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 21% 98%  
25 13% 77%  
26 31% 64% Median
27 10% 33%  
28 22% 23%  
29 0.2% 0.9%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 17% 98%  
11 55% 80% Median
12 18% 25%  
13 6% 7%  
14 1.0% 1.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 39% 90%  
6 43% 51% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 22% 96%  
4 69% 74% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations