Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 19–22 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.6–28.5% | 25.2–29.0% | 24.8–29.3% | 24.2–30.1% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 17.4% | 16.2–18.7% | 15.8–19.1% | 15.5–19.4% | 15.0–20.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.9–16.2% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.3–16.9% | 12.7–17.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.0–13.1% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.4–13.7% | 10.0–14.3% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.1% | 9.7–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.1–13.2% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.4% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.4–6.2% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–19 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 9% | 93% | |
| 25 | 25% | 84% | |
| 26 | 45% | 58% | Median |
| 27 | 7% | 13% | |
| 28 | 2% | 6% | |
| 29 | 4% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 36% | 88% | |
| 17 | 30% | 52% | Median |
| 18 | 14% | 21% | |
| 19 | 7% | 7% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 17% | 98% | |
| 14 | 42% | 81% | Median |
| 15 | 32% | 39% | |
| 16 | 6% | 7% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 7% | 97% | |
| 11 | 26% | 90% | |
| 12 | 59% | 64% | Median |
| 13 | 3% | 5% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 43% | 89% | Median |
| 11 | 29% | 46% | |
| 12 | 16% | 16% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 32% | 94% | |
| 5 | 49% | 62% | Median |
| 6 | 13% | 13% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 34% | 100% | |
| 4 | 61% | 66% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 29% | 100% | |
| 3 | 66% | 71% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 70% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 21% | 21% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 87% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 13% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 24–27 | 23–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 9% | 93% | |
| 25 | 25% | 84% | |
| 26 | 45% | 58% | Median |
| 27 | 7% | 13% | |
| 28 | 2% | 6% | |
| 29 | 4% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 7% | 97% | |
| 11 | 26% | 90% | |
| 12 | 59% | 64% | Median |
| 13 | 3% | 5% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 33% | 98% | |
| 6 | 47% | 65% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 19% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 38% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 56% | 60% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): RTL n-tv
- Fieldwork period: 19–22 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1502
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.30%