Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 26–29 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 29.0% 27.3–30.7% 26.9–31.2% 26.5–31.6% 25.7–32.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 17.3% 16.0–18.8% 15.6–19.2% 15.3–19.6% 14.7–20.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.8% 12.2–16.1% 11.6–16.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.6–13.7% 10.3–14.0% 9.8–14.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.8% 3.6–6.0% 3.3–6.4%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.3%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 26–28 26–29 25–30 25–31
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 17 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 12–16 12–16 11–16 11–16
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 11–12 11–12 10–13 10–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 4% 99.7%  
26 35% 96%  
27 36% 61% Median
28 16% 25%  
29 5% 10%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 0.9%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.5% 100%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 28% 97%  
16 13% 69%  
17 22% 56% Median
18 32% 34%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 4% 100%  
12 8% 96%  
13 19% 88%  
14 39% 69% Median
15 14% 30%  
16 16% 16%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 4% 99.6%  
11 51% 95% Median
12 40% 44%  
13 3% 5%  
14 1.2% 1.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 6% 99.8%  
10 71% 94% Median
11 11% 23%  
12 12% 13%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 54% 98% Median
5 39% 43%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 16% 100%  
3 74% 84% Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 63% 91% Median
4 28% 28%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 81% 95% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 88% 99.9% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 91% 98% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 68% 69% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 0% 26–28 26–29 25–30 25–31
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 11–12 11–12 10–13 10–14
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 4% 99.7%  
26 35% 96%  
27 36% 61% Median
28 16% 25%  
29 5% 10%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 0.9%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 4% 99.6%  
11 51% 95% Median
12 40% 44%  
13 3% 5%  
14 1.2% 1.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.4% 100%  
3 44% 98.6%  
4 45% 55% Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations