Opinion Poll by Verian for FOCUS, 27 May–2 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.6–28.6% 25.2–29.0% 24.8–29.4% 24.1–30.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 18.2% 16.9–19.5% 16.6–19.9% 16.2–20.2% 15.7–20.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.6% 8.1–12.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.2–5.6% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.1% 3.5–6.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.8–5.5%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.2%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.3%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 24–27 23–28 23–28 23–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–15
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 9–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 5% 99.8%  
24 11% 94%  
25 28% 84%  
26 11% 56% Median
27 36% 45%  
28 8% 8%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.8%  
16 4% 98.6%  
17 32% 94%  
18 50% 62% Median
19 12% 13%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 27% 97%  
14 49% 70% Median
15 14% 21%  
16 6% 7%  
17 1.0% 1.2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 35% 99.4%  
12 27% 64% Median
13 23% 37%  
14 13% 14%  
15 0.8% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.6% 100%  
8 6% 99.4%  
9 54% 93% Median
10 26% 40%  
11 14% 14%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 28% 99.4%  
5 53% 71% Median
6 18% 18%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 7% 99.8%  
4 78% 93% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 81% 94% Median
3 13% 13%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 74% 88% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 89% 100% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 98% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 63% 64% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 23–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 5% 99.8%  
24 11% 94%  
25 28% 84%  
26 11% 56% Median
27 36% 45%  
28 8% 8%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 35% 99.4%  
12 27% 64% Median
13 23% 37%  
14 13% 14%  
15 0.8% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 43% 99.6%  
3 46% 56% Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations