Opinion Poll by pollytix, 11–17 June 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.7–29.3% | 26.4–29.7% | 26.1–30.0% | 25.5–30.6% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 16.6% | 15.5–17.7% | 15.3–18.0% | 15.0–18.3% | 14.5–18.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 13.1–15.1% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.6–15.6% | 12.1–16.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12.1–14.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.6–14.5% | 11.2–15.0% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.1–11.9% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.7–12.4% | 9.3–12.9% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.1% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.4–5.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 26–28 | 26–28 | 25–28 | 25–29 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 12–13 | 12–13 | 11–13 | 11–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 24% | 96% | |
| 27 | 52% | 73% | Median |
| 28 | 19% | 21% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 40% | 87% | Median |
| 16 | 33% | 47% | |
| 17 | 13% | 14% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 18% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 40% | 81% | Median |
| 14 | 20% | 41% | |
| 15 | 21% | 21% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 59% | 96% | Median |
| 13 | 35% | 37% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 28% | 96% | |
| 11 | 64% | 68% | Median |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 84% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 65% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 33% | 33% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 49% | 100% | |
| 4 | 32% | 51% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 37% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 84% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 51% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 49% | 49% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 27 | 0% | 26–28 | 26–28 | 25–28 | 25–29 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 24% | 96% | |
| 27 | 52% | 73% | Median |
| 28 | 19% | 21% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 18% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 40% | 81% | Median |
| 14 | 20% | 41% | |
| 15 | 21% | 21% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 33% | 100% | |
| 4 | 29% | 67% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 38% | |
| 6 | 15% | 15% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: pollytix
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–17 June 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2040
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.46%