Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 23–29 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.7–27.3% 24.4–27.7% 24.1–28.0% 23.4–28.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 17.4% 16.3–18.5% 16.0–18.9% 15.7–19.2% 15.2–19.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.1–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.1–14.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 4.1–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.5–6.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.7–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 22–26 22–26 22–27 22–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 17 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 13–15 13–15 13–16 12–16
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 10% 100%  
23 7% 90%  
24 27% 83%  
25 24% 55% Median
26 28% 32%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.7% 0.8%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.5% 100%  
15 17% 99.5%  
16 32% 83%  
17 25% 51% Median
18 22% 26%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 11% 98%  
14 47% 88% Median
15 37% 40%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 9% 99.9%  
11 48% 91% Median
12 31% 44%  
13 13% 13%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 22% 99.7%  
11 29% 78% Median
12 31% 48%  
13 17% 17%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 48% 94% Median
5 35% 46%  
6 11% 11%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 20% 100%  
4 75% 80% Median
5 4% 5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 23% 100%  
3 66% 77% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 83% 92% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 70% 100% Median
2 30% 30%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 99.8% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 83% 83% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 22–26 22–26 22–27 22–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 2–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 10% 100%  
23 7% 90%  
24 27% 83%  
25 24% 55% Median
26 28% 32%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.7% 0.8%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 9% 99.9%  
11 48% 91% Median
12 31% 44%  
13 13% 13%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 33% 97%  
4 55% 64% Median
5 9% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations