Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 26–29 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 17.3% 16.3–18.5% 16.0–18.8% 15.7–19.1% 15.3–19.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 4.1–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–6.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 28 26–29 26–29 26–29 25–30
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 14–19
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–15
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 10–12 10–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.4% 99.9%  
26 12% 98.6%  
27 15% 86%  
28 42% 71% Median
29 27% 29%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 15% 100%  
15 13% 85%  
16 45% 71% Median
17 17% 26%  
18 9% 10%  
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 5% 99.8%  
12 43% 95%  
13 38% 52% Median
14 13% 14%  
15 1.0% 1.0%  
16 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 24% 100%  
11 13% 76%  
12 54% 63% Median
13 9% 9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.0% 100%  
9 11% 99.0%  
10 52% 88% Median
11 36% 36%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 57% 99.4% Median
5 41% 42%  
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 13% 100%  
4 72% 87% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.9% 100%  
3 68% 99.1% Median
4 31% 31%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 62% 95% Median
3 33% 33%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 89% 100% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.5% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 71% 71% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 28 0% 26–29 26–29 26–29 25–30
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 10–12 10–13 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.4% 99.9%  
26 12% 98.6%  
27 15% 86%  
28 42% 71% Median
29 27% 29%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 24% 100%  
11 13% 76%  
12 54% 63% Median
13 9% 9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 24% 99.9%  
4 51% 76% Median
5 25% 25%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations