Opinion Poll by Verian for FOCUS, 24–30 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.6–28.5% 25.1–29.0% 24.8–29.3% 24.1–30.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 17.3% 16.1–18.7% 15.8–19.1% 15.5–19.4% 14.9–20.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.0% 13.9–16.3% 13.6–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 12.8–17.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.5% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 4.0–5.4% 3.8–5.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.4–6.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.8%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.6%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 24–26 24–27 24–28 23–29
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 16–18 14–18 14–19 14–19
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 12–13 11–14 11–14 10–15
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 9–12 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.3% 99.9%  
24 18% 98.6%  
25 50% 80% Median
26 23% 31%  
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 6% 100%  
15 2% 94%  
16 52% 92% Median
17 21% 41%  
18 17% 20%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.8%  
13 9% 98.9%  
14 23% 90%  
15 22% 67% Median
16 45% 46%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.0% 100%  
11 7% 99.0%  
12 30% 92%  
13 56% 63% Median
14 5% 6%  
15 1.4% 1.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 5% 99.8%  
10 28% 95%  
11 59% 67% Median
12 7% 7%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 39% 99.3%  
5 58% 61% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 19% 99.9%  
4 65% 81% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 76% 86% Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 56% 100% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 95% 99.9% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 46%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 45% 45%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 24–26 24–27 24–28 23–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 12–13 11–14 11–14 10–15
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.3% 99.9%  
24 18% 98.6%  
25 50% 80% Median
26 23% 31%  
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.0% 100%  
11 7% 99.0%  
12 30% 92%  
13 56% 63% Median
14 5% 6%  
15 1.4% 1.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 62% 98% Median
4 29% 36%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations