Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 29 June–1 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.5–28.7% | 25.1–29.1% | 24.7–29.5% | 24.0–30.3% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 17.4% | 16.1–18.8% | 15.7–19.2% | 15.4–19.5% | 14.8–20.2% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.8–16.4% | 13.5–16.8% | 13.2–17.1% | 12.7–17.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.3–13.9% | 9.8–14.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.2% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.4–12.8% | 8.9–13.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.3–6.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.3–6.3% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.5% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 25 | 24–27 | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 13–20 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–17 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 7% | 96% | |
| 25 | 50% | 89% | Median |
| 26 | 23% | 39% | |
| 27 | 10% | 17% | |
| 28 | 6% | 6% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 9% | 98% | |
| 16 | 33% | 89% | |
| 17 | 45% | 56% | Median |
| 18 | 9% | 11% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 9% | 98% | |
| 14 | 32% | 89% | |
| 15 | 45% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 7% | 11% | |
| 17 | 4% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 9% | 96% | |
| 11 | 54% | 87% | Median |
| 12 | 15% | 33% | |
| 13 | 16% | 18% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 98% | |
| 10 | 58% | 91% | Median |
| 11 | 20% | 33% | |
| 12 | 11% | 12% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 34% | 92% | |
| 5 | 51% | 58% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 6% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 70% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 29% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 45% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 39% | 54% | Median |
| 5 | 15% | 15% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 33% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 85% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 25 | 0% | 24–27 | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–29 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 7% | 96% | |
| 25 | 50% | 89% | Median |
| 26 | 23% | 39% | |
| 27 | 10% | 17% | |
| 28 | 6% | 6% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 9% | 96% | |
| 11 | 54% | 87% | Median |
| 12 | 15% | 33% | |
| 13 | 16% | 18% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 15% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 38% | 84% | |
| 6 | 40% | 45% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29 June–1 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1317
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.84%