Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 7–13 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.7–27.4% 24.4–27.8% 24.1–28.1% 23.5–28.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 17.4% 16.3–18.6% 16.0–18.9% 15.7–19.2% 15.2–19.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 16.0% 14.9–17.1% 14.6–17.5% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 4.1–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.5–6.1%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.2% 3.6–4.8% 3.5–5.0% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.7–2.1%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 23–26 23–26 23–27 23–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 16–17 16–17 16–18 15–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 15 15–16 15–17 15–17 14–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 13% 99.7%  
24 65% 86% Median
25 10% 21%  
26 6% 11%  
27 5% 5%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.9%  
16 75% 98.9% Median
17 22% 24%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 75% 98% Median
16 15% 23%  
17 8% 8%  
18 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 14% 100%  
11 12% 86%  
12 20% 74%  
13 54% 54% Median
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 68% 98% Median
12 19% 30%  
13 11% 11%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 33% 99.7%  
5 66% 66% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 81% 95% Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 13% 100%  
4 85% 87% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 84% 100% Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98.7% 98.9% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 23–26 23–26 23–27 23–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 13% 99.7%  
24 65% 86% Median
25 10% 21%  
26 6% 11%  
27 5% 5%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 14% 100%  
11 12% 86%  
12 20% 74%  
13 54% 54% Median
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 68% 95% Median
5 26% 27%  
6 1.0% 1.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations