Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 10–13 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 28.5% 27.2–29.8% 26.9–30.2% 26.6–30.5% 26.0–31.2%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 4.0–5.2% 3.8–5.4% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 26–29 26–29 26–29 25–30
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–19
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 12–13 12–14 11–14 11–14
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 9% 98%  
27 61% 89% Median
28 16% 28%  
29 11% 12%  
30 0.7% 0.8%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.7% 100%  
15 10% 99.2%  
16 68% 89% Median
17 10% 21%  
18 11% 11%  
19 0.6% 0.6%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 100%  
11 4% 99.6%  
12 79% 95% Median
13 10% 16%  
14 6% 6%  
15 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.0% 100%  
11 50% 99.0% Median
12 36% 49%  
13 13% 13%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.1% 100%  
9 7% 98.9%  
10 35% 92%  
11 56% 56% Median
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 45% 93% Median
5 46% 48%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 11% 100%  
4 83% 89% Median
5 5% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 14% 100%  
4 75% 86% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 95% 96% Median
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 99.1% 99.7% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 27 0% 26–29 26–29 26–29 25–30
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 9% 98%  
27 61% 89% Median
28 16% 28%  
29 11% 12%  
30 0.7% 0.8%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.0% 100%  
11 50% 99.0% Median
12 36% 49%  
13 13% 13%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 11% 96%  
5 80% 85% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations