Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 3–16 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.4–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.1–30.2%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 18.9% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.0% 16.7–21.4% 16.0–22.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–15.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–15.9%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.0% 3.9–7.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.1%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.5% 2.8–6.0%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.4%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 24 24–25 24–26 23–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 18 17–18 17–19 16–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 12 12–13 12–13 11–14
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 12 12–13 12–13 11–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 5 5 5 5–6 4–7
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 6 5–6 4–6 3–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4 4 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.7%  
24 92% 98.9% Median
25 2% 7%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.5% 0.8%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 4% 98%  
18 90% 95% Median
19 3% 4%  
20 0.7% 2%  
21 1.0% 1.1%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 90% 98% Median
13 6% 8%  
14 1.2% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.9% 99.9%  
12 93% 99.0% Median
13 5% 6%  
14 1.1% 1.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.3% 99.9%  
9 6% 98.6%  
10 4% 93%  
11 88% 89% Median
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 94% 98% Median
6 4% 5%  
7 0.9% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 2% 98.7%  
5 7% 97%  
6 90% 90% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 93% 97% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 95% 99.8% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 98.6% 99.0% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 24 24–25 24–26 23–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 12 12–13 12–13 11–14
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4 4–5 3–5 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.7%  
24 92% 98.9% Median
25 2% 7%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.5% 0.8%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 90% 98% Median
13 6% 8%  
14 1.2% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 91% 97% Median
5 5% 6%  
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations