Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 14–16 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.5–28.7% 25.0–29.1% 24.7–29.5% 23.9–30.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 18.1% 16.8–19.6% 16.4–20.0% 16.1–20.4% 15.5–21.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.7% 12.2–16.0% 11.7–16.7%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.5–14.6% 11.3–15.0% 10.7–15.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6% 10.3–13.9% 9.8–14.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–5.9% 3.8–6.2% 3.5–6.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.7% 3.1–4.4% 2.9–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.5–5.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.2%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.6%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 25–28 24–28 24–28 23–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 12–15 12–15 11–16 11–16
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–14 10–15 10–15 10–15
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.8%  
24 9% 98.6%  
25 30% 90%  
26 24% 60% Median
27 23% 36%  
28 13% 14%  
29 0.2% 0.4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.9%  
16 25% 99.1%  
17 42% 74% Median
18 9% 32%  
19 23% 23%  
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 3% 99.8%  
12 13% 96%  
13 34% 83% Median
14 28% 49%  
15 17% 21%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 5% 100%  
11 30% 95%  
12 16% 65% Median
13 35% 49%  
14 8% 14%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 31% 99.7%  
11 25% 69% Median
12 33% 44%  
13 11% 12%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 19% 98.9%  
5 69% 79% Median
6 10% 10%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 53% 99.9% Median
4 28% 47%  
5 19% 19%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.2% 100%  
3 60% 98.8% Median
4 28% 38%  
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 80% 100% Median
2 20% 20%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 87% 87% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 41%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–28 23–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–6 3–6 2–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.8%  
24 9% 98.6%  
25 30% 90%  
26 24% 60% Median
27 23% 36%  
28 13% 14%  
29 0.2% 0.4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 31% 99.7%  
11 25% 69% Median
12 33% 44%  
13 11% 12%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 35% 99.0% Median
4 44% 64%  
5 13% 19%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations