Opinion Poll by GMS, 15–20 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.8% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.4–31.7% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 18.2% | 16.7–19.9% | 16.3–20.3% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.3–21.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.5–16.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.3–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.3–12.1% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 23–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 23–30 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 88% | |
| 25 | 13% | 85% | |
| 26 | 31% | 71% | Median |
| 27 | 27% | 40% | |
| 28 | 8% | 14% | |
| 29 | 5% | 6% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 15 | 20% | 99.0% | |
| 16 | 25% | 79% | |
| 17 | 38% | 55% | Median |
| 18 | 11% | 17% | |
| 19 | 5% | 6% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 14% | 98% | |
| 12 | 24% | 84% | |
| 13 | 38% | 60% | Median |
| 14 | 15% | 22% | |
| 15 | 6% | 7% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 32% | 86% | |
| 11 | 38% | 54% | Median |
| 12 | 13% | 17% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 9 | 33% | 94% | |
| 10 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 11 | 34% | 41% | |
| 12 | 6% | 7% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 15% | 97% | |
| 5 | 65% | 82% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 17% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 29% | 97% | |
| 5 | 55% | 68% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 13% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 64% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 31% | 32% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 43% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 57% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 99.4% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 99.3% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 28% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 53% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 23–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 23–30 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 88% | |
| 25 | 13% | 85% | |
| 26 | 31% | 71% | Median |
| 27 | 27% | 40% | |
| 28 | 8% | 14% | |
| 29 | 5% | 6% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 32% | 86% | |
| 11 | 38% | 54% | Median |
| 12 | 13% | 17% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 19% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 63% | 81% | Median |
| 4 | 17% | 18% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15–20 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1005
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.44%