Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 21–27 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.7–28.4% 25.3–28.8% 25.0–29.1% 24.4–29.8%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 16.6% 15.5–17.8% 15.2–18.1% 15.0–18.4% 14.4–18.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 16.0% 14.9–17.1% 14.6–17.5% 14.4–17.8% 13.9–18.3%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.0% 12.0–14.0% 11.7–14.3% 11.5–14.6% 11.1–15.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.9–5.1% 3.7–5.3% 3.6–5.5% 3.3–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.7% 3.2–4.3% 3.0–4.5% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–5.0%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.2%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–0.9%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 24–28 24–28 23–28 23–29
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 15–17 15–18 14–18 14–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 15 14–17 14–17 14–17 14–17
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–13 11–14 11–14 11–15
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 3% 99.9%  
24 16% 97%  
25 30% 81%  
26 20% 51% Median
27 14% 30%  
28 15% 16%  
29 1.3% 1.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 18% 96%  
16 43% 78% Median
17 27% 35%  
18 7% 7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.5% 100%  
14 15% 99.5%  
15 39% 84% Median
16 34% 45%  
17 10% 11%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 100%  
11 19% 99.6%  
12 40% 81% Median
13 34% 40%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 7% 99.7%  
11 45% 93% Median
12 36% 48%  
13 11% 12%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 71% 92% Median
5 20% 20%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 39% 99.9%  
4 48% 61% Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.9% 100%  
3 71% 99.1% Median
4 25% 28%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 86% 100% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 92% 93% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 75% 75% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 41%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–28 23–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 3% 99.9%  
24 16% 97%  
25 30% 81%  
26 20% 51% Median
27 14% 30%  
28 15% 16%  
29 1.3% 1.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 7% 99.7%  
11 45% 93% Median
12 36% 48%  
13 11% 12%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 38% 99.6% Median
4 51% 61%  
5 10% 10%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations