Opinion Poll by Verian for FOCUS, 22–28 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.5–28.5% 25.1–29.0% 24.8–29.3% 24.1–30.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 16.6% 15.3–17.9% 15.0–18.2% 14.7–18.6% 14.2–19.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.3–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–6.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.8–5.5%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.0–2.8%
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 25–26 25–27 25–27 23–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 16 16 15–16 14–16 14–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 14–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 12–13 12–13 11–13 11–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 11 11–12 10–12 10–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3 3 2–3 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.4%  
25 88% 98.6% Median
26 2% 11%  
27 8% 9%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 4% 96%  
16 90% 92% Median
17 2% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 7% 99.6%  
14 79% 93% Median
15 13% 13%  
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 81% 97% Median
13 15% 16%  
14 1.1% 1.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 90% 97% Median
12 6% 8%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 84% 93% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 83% 97% Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 94% 95% Median
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 25% 99.9%  
2 75% 75% Median
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 99.8% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 89% 89% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 25–26 25–27 25–27 23–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 12–13 12–13 11–13 11–14
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.4%  
25 88% 98.6% Median
26 2% 11%  
27 8% 9%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 81% 97% Median
13 15% 16%  
14 1.1% 1.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 14% 99.6%  
4 85% 85% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations