Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 28–30 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.4–29.7% | 25.9–30.2% | 25.5–30.6% | 24.7–31.4% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 18.2% | 16.8–19.7% | 16.4–20.1% | 16.1–20.5% | 15.5–21.2% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.5–14.7% | 11.2–15.0% | 10.7–15.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.5–13.6% | 10.3–13.9% | 9.7–14.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.5–13.6% | 10.3–13.9% | 9.7–14.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.8% | 3.9–6.0% | 3.8–6.2% | 3.5–6.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.3–5.3% | 3.2–5.5% | 2.9–5.9% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.8–5.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 25–28 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 24–30 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 12% | 96% | |
| 26 | 49% | 84% | Median |
| 27 | 12% | 34% | |
| 28 | 17% | 23% | |
| 29 | 2% | 6% | |
| 30 | 3% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 16 | 14% | 96% | |
| 17 | 43% | 81% | Median |
| 18 | 16% | 38% | |
| 19 | 21% | 22% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 29% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 28% | 71% | Median |
| 13 | 25% | 43% | |
| 14 | 12% | 18% | |
| 15 | 7% | 7% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 16% | 90% | |
| 12 | 32% | 74% | Median |
| 13 | 36% | 41% | |
| 14 | 6% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 13% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 33% | 86% | |
| 12 | 38% | 53% | Median |
| 13 | 14% | 15% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 67% | 95% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 28% | |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 35% | 100% | |
| 4 | 50% | 65% | Median |
| 5 | 14% | 15% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 36% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 50% | 63% | Median |
| 5 | 13% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 71% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 29% | 29% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Klima Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 42% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 25–28 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 24–30 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 12% | 96% | |
| 26 | 49% | 84% | Median |
| 27 | 12% | 34% | |
| 28 | 17% | 23% | |
| 29 | 2% | 6% | |
| 30 | 3% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 16% | 90% | |
| 12 | 32% | 74% | Median |
| 13 | 36% | 41% | |
| 14 | 6% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 30% | 100% | |
| 4 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 5 | 39% | 46% | |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): ZDF
- Fieldwork period: 28–30 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1194
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.75%